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President Bush with James Baker.
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| By Ashley Rindsberg December 19, 2006 |
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Contrary to James Baker's Iraq Study Group and its much-ridiculed recommendations which are now giving off only the faintest signs of a political pulse, the Bush administration is stepping up to Iran with a new push for Security Council sanctions, in concert with a very visible buildup of US-led military forces in the Gulf.
Western nations are pushing aggressively for a Security Council resolution to be passed against Iran this week. Russia and China, who generally oppose moves to marginalize or reprimand 'rogue' nations, have voiced reservations over the past few months about such a move but now seem to be getting on board.
According to Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, "The new resolution prepared by the EU3 (European big three) that is now being discussed in the Security Council has to a large extent taken into account our approaches."
China -- a major supplier of missiles to Iran -- has its own reservations, including a travel ban on Iranian individuals which it considers to be 'humiliating'. However, it too seems closer to an agreement.
With Russian cooperation, it is unlikely that China will oppose the rest of the Security Council on the resolution and will most likely push for smaller modifications to the text.
Outgoing US ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, explained current top-level thinking on this recent response to Iran: "The notion here of taking Ahmadinejad seriously [in his calls for strikes against the US and genocide against Israel], taking seriously that he means what he says and intends to have the capabilities to carry through on it, is critical in our own internal discussions in the United States about what we're going to do about it."
In this vein, the US has not only made a vigorous push for sanctions but has also begun to amass a huge force in the Persian Gulf.
US Navy forces have been pouring in and out of the region over the past few months, including the carrier Strike Group 12 led by the nuclear aircraft carrier USS Enterprise, Expeditionary Strike Group 5 led by carrier USS Boxer, Iowa Jima Expeditionary Strike Group, and even elements of the US Coast Guard. Canada and NATO have also sent naval forces. It is the largest amassing of off-base naval forces anywhere in the word at present.
However, given the size of the US armada in the Gulf, the question remains as to whether the assemblage is a show of force or the next step in a much-speculated war plan for 2007.
CBS News released a report early this week saying that the Pentagon is planning for an even more significant buildup in the Gulf. Department of Defense officials did not refute the claim but simply called it 'speculative'.
While many critics of the US-led Iraq War are calling the war a failure and claiming that the US is spread too thin for another serious combat front, the US show of force in the Gulf is a reminder of US military strength.
Others note that while the US is fighting a complex multi-front war, its would-be enemy, Iran, is in a very similar situation with proxy fronts on the Lebanon- and Syria-Israel borders, its sponsorship of the insurgency in Iraq, a growing discontent from neighboring Sunni powers like Saudi Arabia, and, with students burning photos of the Iranian president in public, even signs of popular agitation at home.
As US political leaders such as Senators John McCain (R-Arizona) and Joe Lieberman (D-Connecticut) distance themselves from the Iraq Study Group's recommendations for a negotiation-based strategy for Iran and Syria, the Bush administration may have recouped for itself the necessary political capital to launch a multi-pronged response to Iran, using a "well we tried that, now let's try this" justification for more serious steps.
What is certain is that although the fallout from the Baker report (which some Washington insiders have called a 'farce') may not have restored President Bush's political currency coffers to their post-9/11 peaks, it could very well have put the Bush administration back in the black. |
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