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| By Israel Insider staff and partners August 11, 2006 |
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After weeks of vacillation, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz have authorized the beginning of a major ground offensive into southern Lebanon. Reporters on the border report stepped-up activity as infantry and armored forces, kept on hold for days, prepare to surge north.
The decision to authorize the offensive was made after it became clear to Israel's fragmented and bickering leadership that, as much as they wanted a diplomatic solution, the latest compromises by the United States on the wording of the draft resolution were far from being acceptable to Israel. Especially problematic were the American concession to Lebanese pressure that the multinational force would not have any enforcement powers but could only defend itself. There was also a problematic reference to the Shabaa farms dispute, implying that Israel would be expected to hand over this strategic high ground, effectively providing a major prize to Hezbollah.
Regardless of the Israel moves, after weeks of inaction, the United States and France appear close to breaking a deadlock on a U.N. resolution aimed at ending the monthlong conflict between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas and a U.S. diplomat said there could be a vote on Friday. Channel 10 reports that in recent hours there have displomatic attempts to satisfy Israel's requirements, and that the offensive initiation is just a "negotiating tactic."
Intensive negotiations among key Security Council members were under way Thursday and scheduled to carry on through the evening. In Jerusalem, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was quoted as saying a new proposal being drafted "has positive significance that may bring the war to an end."
"We're making progress and it's entirely possible we could have a vote tomorrow," U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said after a meeting with his French counterpart, Jean-Marc de La Sabliere. "We've closed some of the areas of disagreement with the French."
The United States and France have been trying to bridge differences over a timetable for an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and reach agreement on a resolution.
There were other signs that long-awaited action by the U.N. Security Council might be near.
British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett said she was flying to New York to "reinforce" Britain's efforts to reach agreement on a resolution, calling the situation "urgent" and saying "we need now to complete the task."
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also was prepared to come either to vote "or, if need be, to work out any last-minute details," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said.
In Jerusalem, Israeli officials said they would hold off on expanding the current offensive in Lebanon to give diplomacy more time to work. The Security Cabinet has authorized Olmert to expand the offensive.
"If the draft is not accepted, there is the Cabinet decision," lawmaker Otniel Schneller, an Olmert adviser, quoted the prime minister as saying.
Israel Television reported that the latest draft resolution calls for the current 2,000-strong U.N. force in southern Lebanon to be enlarged to 20,000 troops, with Spain, German, Italy and Australia among the new troop contributors.
The Americans and the French want to make sure the resolution is acceptable to the Israelis and the Lebanese, who rejected their original draft circulated Aug. 5.
France is backing Lebanon's call for Israeli troops to start pulling out once hostilities end and when Lebanon deploys 15,000 troops of its own in the south.
Bolton said the United States believes Lebanon's decision to deploy the army "is significant, and we are going to take account of that in the resolution." But he said the strategic issue remains how to ensure that Hezbollah does not "re-infiltrate the southern part of Lebanon."
The United States is supporting Israel's insistence on staying in southern Lebanon until a robust international force is deployed, which could take weeks or months.
The U.S. and French ambassadors met with Secretary-General Kofi Annan, who had spoken to Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. Bolton and de La Sabliere then met again, and another meeting of the five permanent council members was expected late Thursday.
China's deputy U.N. ambassador, Liu Zhenmin, was more optimistic. "It's a good chance," he said.
Annan's spokesman said the secretary-general "believes that it ought to be possible for the Security Council to adopt a resolution by the end of the week," meaning by Sunday.
At a meeting of the five permanent members Wednesday evening, France presented the latest language in the draft resolution, a Security Council diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the meeting was closed.
One key amendment "calls upon the government of Lebanon, upon cessation of hostilities, to start deploying its armed forces throughout the south as the Israeli army starts withdrawing," in coordination with U.N. peacekeepers who are already in southern Lebanon, the diplomat said.
A second resolution is expected to authorize a robust international force, possibly led by France, to help implement a cease-fire agreement.
The U.S.-French draft circulated Aug. 5 calls for "a full cessation of hostilities," with Hezbollah immediately stopping all attacks and Israel ending offensive military operations. But Israel would still be allowed to take defensive action and there is no call for the withdrawal of its troops from southern Lebanon, Hezbollah's stronghold.
Lebanon opposed the draft, saying it favored Israel too strongly, a view echoed by Hezbollah on Wednesday.
The Lebanese government demanded that the cessation of hostilities must be complete -- including all Israeli military activity -- and said all Israeli troops must leave Lebanese territory when the fighting stops. It warned that their presence would be viewed as a new occupation and cited Hezbollah's threat to shoot at any Israeli soldiers in the country.
French President Jacques Chirac said the draft should be revised to take into account Lebanese and Arab demands for changes. If the U.S. and France do not reach agreement, he said France might introduce its own resolution.
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