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Olmert after Annapolis: talking tough, at least till Winograd
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| By Reuven Koret January 13, 2008 |
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Analysis
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told Kadima ministers that it was a "disgrace" Israel hasn't taken action on unauthorized West Bank settlement outposts it has promised to dismantle, a meeting participant said. Since he has been in power for now two years, it was a startling admission of his own impotence. He lacks both the political coalition and the popular support to confront the residents of Judea and Samaria and their allies -- and everyone knows it.
Soon after he came to power, Olmert used brute force to clear a half-dozen caravans in Amona. Since that fiasco, marked by police brutality and scene that were truly disgraceful -- he has not dared since to go head-to-head with settlers. As his popularity continues to wallow in the muck -- even voters and (especially) ministers from his own party want him out -- few take him seriously, within Israel or without.
Indeed, after his indelicate remarks, derisive comments flew in from all sides. "Not one outpost was evacuated during Olmert's term," Peace Now said in a statement. "Olmert should stop commenting, accept the responsibility and dismantle outposts." Meretz leadership hopeful MK Zehava Gal-On said: "The real disgrace is the prime minister's evasion of his responsibility to evacuate outposts." Labor MK Ophir Paz-Penis also lashed out at Olmert. "There has never been a government which [so] methodically and consistently believes that words can replace actions," he said. "The disgrace is the helplessness and idleness displayed by Olmert on the issue of outpost evacuation. Olmert has turned the promises made by Israel into a joke."
On the right, the Council of Jewish Communities in Judea and Samaria (Yesha) said the issue of outposts could be settled in discussions, the council said in a statement quoted by Israel Radio. The prime minister's conduct on the matter, it said, was "apparently intended to cause confrontation to divert public attention from the freeze in settlement construction." Not to mentional the release of the report on the government's handing of the Second Lebanon war by the Winograd Commission, scheduled to be released in just over two weeks. Tick-tock.
Even his own defense minister, Ehud Barak -- the man who would be responsible for dealing with the outposts -- called Olmert's remarks "reckless." His aides added, helpfully: "The thinking that allows for the evacuation of outposts without first exhausting all other means is a type of recklessness that Olmert adopted during the Second Lebanon War and the evacuation of Amona."
Barak was reportedly furious that Olmert refused to approve an agreement being worked out with settlement leaders to resolve the outpost issue in a mutually-agreed way -- horse-trading construction in outposts for construction in approved, legitimate settlements -- because Olmert was afraid the agreement would make him look like a liar in the eyes of the Palestinians and, more importantly, Bush.
Still, emboldened by the hand-holding and hugging during last week's visit from "Uncle George," Olmert took the time to talk tough, whistling past the graveyard as the release of the Winograd report approaches, considered likely to spell the end of his political career.
Still, the unusually harsh language for the unauthorized outposts was typical Olmert -- talk tough when you lack the gumption or cajones or ability to act -- days after US President George W. Bush told Israel bluntly that the outposts "ought to go." At least Washington will be impressed by his strong words, so he would like to believe, even if the Israeli Prime Minister is as incapable of clearing outposts as West Bank chief Mahmoud Abbas is of clearing Hamas out of Gaza.
Under the US-backed "road map" peace plan of 2003, Israel promised to take down about two dozen of the outposts settlers erected across Judea and Samaria (the "West Bank") in an attempt to strengthen their hold on the land and prevent themselves from being expelled like the former residents of Gush Katif and other communities in Israeli Gaza. The outposts were built without official authorization, but with the winks and nods of Israeli authorities. Only Israeli leftists and Palestinian activists called them "illegal" -- until Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and then President Bush started ratcheting up the language condemnation.
At a news conference with Olmert in Jerusalem last week, Bush said that after four years of unfulfilled promises, it was time for Israel to take action. Olmert nodded but his right-wing coalition partners Israel Beitenu and Shas winked. If he tried taking on the settlers by destroying even a small community of caravans, both parties would leaves his coalition with their twenty-something mandates. Despite his blatant attempts at buying off religious ministers with money and despite Bush's blatant attempt to sway renegade ministers, the general feeling is that Olmert was likely to be gone from office before Israel succeeded in taking down even one outpost.
Separately, during Sunday's cabinet meeting, Olmert said Bush assured him that Gaza would have to be part of any future peace deal with the Palestinians. "He repeated the absolute commitment of the US that no agreement between us and the Palestinians can be implemented on the ground before the full implementation of the road map, both in Gaza and in the West Bank," Olmert said. What that is supposed to mean no one really knows. There is no chance of Abbas' "security forces" imposing law and order in the West Bank, let alone Hamas stopping terror in Gaza.
During his first-ever visit to the West Bank last week, Bush acknowledged that "Gaza is a tough situation. I don't know whether you can solve it in a year or not."
It was just another understatement and self-delusion in the continuing charade that is the new and improved "Annapolis Process." Everybody knows that the chances of Olmert being in power a year from now -- let alone eliminating outposts, clearing settlements, or signing a peace treaty -- are just slightly greater than those of George Bush. |
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