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Olmert: dodged a bullet potentially fatal to his government
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| By Israel Insider staff January 31, 2008 |
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The head of the committee investigating the execution of the Second Lebanon War, retired judge Eliahu Winograd, effectively exonerated Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of the most serious charge against him. Commenting on the government's decision to initiate a ground operation in the last 60 hours of the war, at the cost of 33 IDF lives, Winograd said: "The decision to start the ground operation was within the political and professional discretion of its makers, on the basis of the facts before them. The goals of the ground operation were legitimate, and were not exhausted by the wish to hasten or improve the diplomatic achievement. There was no failure in that decision in itself, despite its limited achievements and its painful costs."
In this, Olmert was spared the judgment that his government sent soldiers needlessly to their deaths for ulterior motives. He and his government were condemned for a war that represented "a serious missed opportunity" that concluded without a "clear military victory." But the report concluded that the decision to embark on the ground campaign was not only reasonable, but almost "inevitable."
Olmert still has to contend with Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who had promised last year that he would leave the government after the publication of the full Winograd Report if Olmert had not quit on his own. "The Winograd Report is tough, and obligates personal conclusions," Barak said last June, after the release of the interim report. "Prime Minister Ehud Olmert must draw personal conclusions and resign, as did Dan Halutz and Amir Peretz. If he doesn't do this until the publication of the full report of the Winograd Committee, we will need to end our partnership with Olmert, and work for the establishment of a new government in the current Knesset, or alternatively to work for setting a date for elections."
But Barak is a shrewd politician, and he must now make the political calculation whether his political interests will best be served by taking a principled stand and taking the Labor party he leads out of the government or rather biding his time as Defense leader to a better opportunity. Will disregarding his pledge of eight months ago harm or help his chances of winning a looming contest with the opposition frontrunner, Benjamin Netanyahu?
For now Barak is keeping his cards close to his chest.
An official in Olmert's office said on Thursday the prime minister would implement recommendations laid out by the government-appointed panel and would "continue to work."
Olmert's allies, meanwhile, said the Prime Minister would not quit. "I was at his place last night. He said that even had the Winograd Commission been firmer in its criticism, he would not have stepped down," former justice minister Yosef Lapid said. "But given the way it turned out -- certainly not. He said this to me."
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