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Ariel Sharon: tough line, dire straits (AP)
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| By Associated Press November 29, 2004 |
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Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was set on a collision course Monday with his most loyal coalition partner, the Shinui Party, raising prospects of early elections that could postpone an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
Sharon has been walking a political tightrope since he lost his parliamentary majority several months ago, with hard-liners bolting over his plan to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and four West Bank settlements in 2005.
Sharon's coalition problems heightened this week because he needs to get his 2005 state budget approved in parliament.
The opposition Labor Party -- which had provided a parliamentary safety net to Sharon because it supports his plan of "disengagement" from the Palestinians -- announced last week that it won't vote for the 2005 budget. Labor opposes the budget because of cuts in social spending.
In trying to cobble together the necessary parliamentary majority, Sharon on Sunday agreed to transfer 420 million shekels (US$98 million or ?74 million) to two religious parties in exchange for their support in the budget vote.
The move enraged the secular-rights party Shinui, Sharon's most loyal and largest coalition partner. Shinui leader Yosef Lapid said his party would vote against the budget, depriving Sharon of a parliamentary majority.
Sharon responded with a counter threat to fire any ministers who oppose the spending plan. In this event, Shinui would be forced out of the coalition, leaving Sharon with the support of only 40 legislators in the 120-member parliament.
If the budget doesn't pass by March 31, Sharon's government automatically falls and elections would have to be held within three months. Elections are currently scheduled for November 2006.
Lapid said Monday that Shinui would not be deterred from voting against the budget. "Sharon is cutting off the branch his government is sitting on, and if he does this then there will be elections in the very near future," he told Israel's Army Radio.
The prospect of early elections sent politicians into a whirlwind of activity. Sharon was scheduled to meet on Monday with Eli Yishai, the leader of the ultra-Orthodox Shas, an opposition faction.
Officials close to the prime minister said Sharon wants to bring Shas and Labor into his government, a coalition that would be acceptable to most members of his Likud Party.
But Lapid said he and Labor leader Shimon Peres agreed on Sunday that if Shinui opposes the budget and leaves the coalition, Labor would not move in to fill the vacant seat. Labor officials refused to confirm such a deal had been made.
"However you look at it, Sharon's government is in its final death throes. Even if Sharon maneuvers out of this crisis, the next few months will not be smooth sailing," political analyst Yossi Verter wrote in the Haaretz newspaper.
Sharon faces three votes of no-confidence in parliament Monday over his government's economic policies, but was expected to be saved from defeat by the dovish Yahad Party, which said a Gaza withdrawal was the top priority.
"We will support disengagement, we will not bring down the government," Yahad lawmaker Avshalom Vilan told Israel Radio. "In the diplomatic arena we will give the government freedom of movement and in the area of the budget we will vote against it."
If an early election is called, Sharon would have to face off against his main Likud Party rival -- Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu -- in a primary. Sharon might lose such a contest since many Likud members oppose the Gaza plan.
Sharon "cannot go to an early election before disengagement and he cannot run against Netanyahu in primaries before disengagement," political analyst Hanan Crystal said.
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