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Ex-finance minister MK Benjamin Netanyahu (AP)
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| By Associated Press August 12, 2005 |
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"Big bang" is the latest buzzword in Israel, and it's even overshadowing preparations for next week's emotionally charged Gaza pullout.
The scenario, supported by polls, goes like this: Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is forced out of his hawkish Likud by rival Benjamin Netanyahu after the pullout; Sharon splits the party, seeks moderate allies, and wins early elections; Israel is for the first time governed by a strong centrist party with a modest peace agenda, ending decades of straightforward struggle between a right wing that wanted to keep occupied land and a left wing eager to get rid of it.
It's more than speculation.
Polls this week indicated that Sharon could easily be ousted as Likud leader by Netanyahu, who abruptly resigned as finance minister this week in a protest against the Gaza pullout. Most assume Netanyahu will make the attempt.
Sharon, a former champion of the settlers whose decision to pull out of Gaza stunned many, is now quite popular with the public at large. But the party primary would be decided by some 150,000 registered Likud members, many of them committed hawkish ideologues outraged at Sharon for ignoring their opposition to the Gaza pullout. Two surveys among them each gave Netanyahu a 14-point lead.
The charismatic Netanyahu, meanwhile, has been crowned the new prince of the nationalist camp, which had been leaderless in the yearlong struggle against the withdrawal.
Netanyahu, a former prime minister and Likud leader, has yet to declare his candidacy. But he has reportedly already flown to the United States to raise money for his campaign.
Sharon insists for now he will not leave the party he helped create 30 years ago. "I'm a Likud man," he told Israel TV on Wednesday. "I will head into the election as part of the Likud."
But that could change if his prospects in the party don't improve.
Another survey published Thursday indicated that an alliance of Sharon, Vice Premier Shimon Peres of Labor and centrist politician Joseph Lapid would crush a Netanyahu-led Likud.
The "party of the three old men," as newspapers already refer to it, would emerge as the largest in the 120-member parliament with 38 seats, compared to just 14 seats for Netanyahu's Likud and seven for Labor without Peres, according to the survey by the independent Dahaf polling company. The poll among 500 Israelis, published in the Yediot Ahronot daily, had an error margin of 4.2 percentage points.
Sharon is 77 years old, Peres 81 and Lapid 73.
Elections are scheduled for November 2006, but are likely to be moved up to January or February, said Israel Radio's political analyst, Hanan Crystal.
When parliament returns from recess in late October, about a month after the pullout is to be completed, most parties will have strong motives to push for early elections, Crystal said. The moderates who had propped up Sharon to push through the withdrawal no longer have a reason to help him. Hawkish parties, his former allies, want to punish him for the withdrawal and replace him with a more hard-line leader.
From a parliament decision to call elections, three months would have to pass before a vote is held.
Analysts acknowledged that much can change, even if elections are held at the beginning of the year.
If the Gaza pullout proceeds smoothly, without bloodshed, Sharon might pick up support in Likud. The wily politician has survived many challenges in three decades in politics and has outmaneuvered Netanyahu in the past.
Crystal said the most likely scenario is a "small bang" -- Sharon leaving Likud and taking along many of his loyalists, including Vice Premier Ehud Olmert, a strong withdrawal proponent. He could first form his own party, then hook up with Peres and Lapid after the election.
Lapid said he was amenable.
"It's possible that Sharon will leave the Likud and make an effort to set up a centrist bloc, together with Peres and me," he told Channel 2 TV. "That could be an interesting idea," he said, smiling.
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