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Olmert and Sharon (AP file)
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| By Israel Insider staff and partners January 5, 2006 |
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On Wednesday, January 4, Ariel Sharon's Kadima party was officially approved according to Israeli legal authorities. The Kadima party, the creation of the "Big Bang" that Sharon engineered in breaking away from the Likud party he founded, was in effect the party of one man, which polls showed would win a vast victory -- currently expected to win 42 seats, with Labor at 19 and Likud at 14 -- in the upcoming elections in March. Sharon was expected to appoint singlehandedly its Knesset list and waltz to an overwhelming victory.
By the end of the day, everything about the coming election, and the Israeli political scene as a whole was enveloped in uncertainty as it became clear that Sharon's stroke and brain hemorrhage, barring a miracle, would never return to full function even if he survives the next hours and days. While Ehud Olmert, Sharon's Vice-Premier, was as per Israel's Basic Law (Section 16) empowered as temporary PM for up to 100 days, it was not at all clear that Olmert would be able to lead Kadima, or have the support of its other members. It was far from clear that Kadima, so much the personal creation of one man, will even be able to reconsitute itself under the leadership of someone else.
A poll carried out for Israel Radio Wednesday before PM Sharon's medical emergency asked: "If Ariel Sharon does not head Kadima in the elections, how would you vote?"
In that situation, Kadima without Sharon would get only 13 seats, less than the Likud with 16 and Labor with 18, and 36 undecided -- a clear indication that the new party will dramatically lose support.
The "smart money" among political commentators was that the immediately political beneficiary of Israel's leadership crisis will be Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu who, as a former Prime Minister, has the necessary gravitas as a statesman -- despite his unpopularity in some circles -- to guide the nation through the expected leadership crisis.
The Likud had planned to quit the government, at Netanyahu's instruction, on Sunday, but that decision is likely to be withdrawn in the current emergency situation.
There is an expectation that some of the former Likud ministers, who followed Sharon into Kadima, will now try to "return to the fold."
It is unclear whether Labor leader Amir Peretz will be able to seize the opportunity to demonstrate leadership that until now has been perceived as lacking, and to attract back some of those who deserted for Kadima. The situation of Shimon Peres, defeated in the Labor party leadership race and since having resigned to join Kadima (but in an uncertain role), also remains unclear.
Much in the immediate future may depend on the functioning of Ehud Olmert in the days to come, and the public's perception of him. Olmert will acquire 7 to 10 ministerial portfolios from Sharon, not to mention the two he already held, Finance as well as Industry and Trade. That equals the numbers of portfolios held by all members of the Cabinet put together.
Olmert therefore will have little choice but to distribute portfolios sooner rather than later. He may face a leadership challenge from Minister Tzipi Livni, who challenged Olmert for the number two position in the new, and possibly still-born party. Neither Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, who joined Kadima but is not a member of Knesset and thus can't be Prime Minister, not Shimon Peres, who never formally joined Kadima, is considered to be a serious contender for leadership of Kadima.
But Kadima has no institutions or organizational structure, and unclear how a replacement for Sharon will be chosen. The race for prime minister, which looked until a few hours ago like a done deal, is now wide open.
Some legal experts have raised the possibility that the March 28 elections could be delayed by agreement of two-thirds of the Knesset or by directive of the President. Without a constitution, Israel may be facing a situation when even the source of authority is called into question and the procedures for an orderly succession are far from clear to all.
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