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Bibi Netanyahu, Monday. (AP)
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| By Israel Insider staff and partners January 31, 2006 |
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Only hours after Hamas won Palestinian parliamentary elections, politician Benjamin Netanyahu sprang into action, taking to the airwaves to warn Israelis that the Islamic group would set up a regime analogous to the Taliban of Afghanistan and the ayatollahs of Iran.
With his Likud Party lagging in the polls for March 28 elections, Netanyahu has a lot to gain from the rise of Hamas, which has carried out deadly suicide attacks and refuses to recognize Israel. Known as a political Houdini, Netanyahu has come from far behind before to win elections and could do it again, analysts said Monday.
A poll published Monday - the first since Hamas won 74 out of 132 seats in the Palestinian legislative council last week - showed Likud making gains.
If elections were held today, Likud would get 16 out of 120 seats, the poll showed. While that would still leave it far below the number it would need to form a government, it is a strong improvement over the 13 seats the party polled last week.
While support for the centrist Kadima Party remains strong - it got one more seat for a total of 42 in the poll - a complete Hamas takeover of the Palestinian Authority or more suicide bombings could frighten moderate Israelis, prompting them to bolt for Likud, analysts said. The poll of 500 Israelis had a margin of error of two seats.
When asked if the recent events could catapult Netanyahu to power, political analyst Hanan Crystal said: "I won't be surprised if it happens."
Israeli history has shown that when Israelis are afraid for their security, they become more hawkish.
Monday's poll also showed a slight increase in opposition to unilateral pullouts from disputed West Bank land, with almost 53 percent of Israelis rejecting such withdrawals, up from 49 percent. Such withdrawals are central to Kadima's platform. Ariel Sharon formed the centrist party late last year after hard-liners in his Likud Party tried to torpedo Israel unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip last summer.
Sharon's creation of Kadima - known as the "big bang" - attracted a large chunk of the Israeli public to the center, breaking the traditional rivalry between the hardline Likud and dovish Labor.
But this trend could be reversed if the security situation worsens and pushes former Likud voters, who comprise half Kadima's support, back to their party, analysts said.
"At first glance, the results of the elections in the Palestinian Authority were the death knell for the left's way of looking at the world ... and affirm the Israeli right's understanding of the essence of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict," political commentator Uzi Benziman wrote in the Haaretz newspaper.
Kadima was dealt a major blow when Sharon suffered a stroke Jan. 4 and fell into a coma. Although voters have remained loyal to the party, analysts say that this could just out of sympathy for Sharon and may wear off.
Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert - who took Sharon's place at Kadima's helm - has given only muted response to the Hamas victory, apparently hoping not to scare away voters from either side of the political spectrum.
Netanyahu has come from far behind before. In 1996, then-Prime Minister Shimon Peres had a double-digit lead on Netanyahu, in part due to public sympathy after his predecessor, Yitzhak Rabin, was assassinated by an ultranationalist Jew. But Netanyahu pulled off a narrow victory following a wave of suicide bombings that killed 58 Israelis.
"When there are attacks the fear rises, and the demagoguery," Crystal said. "Netanyahu is selling security and fear. Kadima is selling hope."
In radio interviews even before Hamas' win was official, Netanyahu warned of the potential danger.
"Today, Hamastan has been formed, a proxy of Iran in the image of the Taliban," Netanyahu said. In interviews since, he has used the word "terror" frequently.
But Netanyahu's play on security fears may not completely work, since Likud has no generals at the top of its list, said pollster Mina Tzemach. The lists of Kadima and Labor are filled with retired generals and former security chiefs.
Roni Bar-On, a senior Kadima official, said Netanyahu was reveling in the Hamas success with his tough stance against the Palestinians. Remembering 1996, Bar-On didn't rule out the possibility that Likud could steal Kadima backers.
"The question is what Hamas will do in the coming months," Bar-On said.
The AP contributed to this report.
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