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Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the Likud party, gets a blessing heading into the last weekend of campaigning. (AP)
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| By Israel Insider staff and partners March 25, 2006 |
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Barring last-minute surprises, Israelis look set for a seismic shift in Tuesday's election, discarding their polarizing dreams of either settling Jews in a Greater Israel of biblical dimensions or trading much of that land for peace with the Palestinians.
The emerging consensus, represented by the front-running Kadima party, is to abandon much of Judea and Samaria, dismantle Jewish settlements and withdraw behind a barrier in exchange for some normalcy, though not a peace deal with the Palestinians.
"There is a change, a maturity, an understanding that we can't go on like this," sums up Haim Yavin, the Israel TV news anchor who has covered 11 elections. The public mood, he said in an interview, is that "enough is enough, let's get on with the business of living."
This far-reaching change of heart, if it translates into votes the way pollsters predict, would remake Israeli politics by propelling the neophyte Kadima to power and opening a broad center between Israel's right-wing Likud and left-leaning Labor.
Kadima's leader, acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, is tapping into the new consensus with promises to withdraw by 2010 to a final border. In so doing, he has turned the election into a referendum on the fate of land Israel captured in the 1967 Mideast War.
The drama began in November when Prime Minister Ariel Sharon quit his Likud Party to form Kadima with disaffected Likud and Labor heavyweights, creating a party that shot to the top of the polls and has stayed there even after Sharon's devastating stroke on Jan. 4. As for giving up land, Sharon already forged that template in September when he pulled Israel out of the Gaza Strip. So what his successor, Olmert, is proposing has not come as a complete surprise to the public.
Throughout the turmoil of the past four months, polls have held surprisingly steady, predicting Kadima will win just under one-third of the 120 seats in parliament, or about double that of Labor and Likud. That would enable Olmert to form a coalition with either of those parties, or both, or some of the smaller ones.
Yet as the election draws near, pollsters are increasingly jittery. Kadima has lost a bit of ground in recent weeks, 10 percent of voters are still undecided, and many of those who said they would vote for Kadima could change their minds at the last minute because the party has no proven track record.
Monumental though the stakes are, this has been one of the dullest campaigns in Israel's 58-year history, largely because Kadima has been seen as the sure winner. And the Palestinians next door also seem largely indifferent.
They feel they can't stop Olmert from imposing his border, which would grab key areas they want for a state, including large West Bank settlement blocs and parts of Jerusalem. And with the Islamic militant Hamas poised to form the next Palestinian government after its January election victory, neither Palestinians nor Israelis expect a resumption of peace talks.
The Palestinians are also caught up in their own dramas, including chaos in the streets and the political wrangling between Hamas and moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
The three candidates for prime minister _ Olmert, ex-union boss Amir Peretz of Labor Party and former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud _ are familiar faces lacking the charisma of a Sharon.
Olmert, 60, has been in politics for more than three decades, including as Cabinet minister and mayor of Jerusalem. He has earned the reputation of being a blunt, somewhat aloof man who can get things done and has a passion for fine cigars and soccer.
He has softened his demeanor since filling in for Sharon, but remains "just mean enough to make a good prime minister," commentator Amnon Abramovitz said on Channel 2 TV.
Netanyahu, 56, who opposes most territorial concessions, is given little chance of reclaiming the top job he held from 1996 to 1999. The diminished party he took over after Sharon quit is running third in the polls.
Labor, the party that ruled Israel for its first 29 years as a state, has been revolutionized by the surprise election of 53-year-old Peretz as its leader, a Moroccan-born Sephardi in a party dominated by European-descended Ashkenazim. But Peretz's agenda of greater economic equality has not taken off, because voters are still preoccupied with the Mideast conflict.
Olmert said last week he would only form coalitions with parties that back his plan of "consolidation" _ quickly completing Israel's West Bank separation barrier which will serve as the basis for the new border, dismantling dozens of small West Bank settlements, and evacuating their tens of thousands of inhabitants.
He said a four-year term as prime minister is enough to complete the job. "I believe it's time for us to take our fate into our hands," he told Channel 10 TV this week. "Four years is a lot of time when you want to do something, when you know what you want to do."
Unless there's a dramatic upset, a last-minute Palestinian attack _ or the pollsters have wholly misread the changed Israeli political landscape _ it appears Olmert could only be denied the premiership if right-wing and religious parties opposed to territorial concessions form a "blocking majority" of 61 seats. For now, they seem short of that threshold.
Driving the Israeli mood is a weariness with the violence that has killed nearly 3,700 Palestinians and nearly 1,100 Israelis. The constant threat of bombings was made vivid last week when police chased down a suspect in a van on the crowded Jerusalem-Tel Aviv highway, stalling traffic for an hour and sending motorists fleeing from their cars in panic. Police said a 15-pound bomb was found in the van.
Deeper down lies a fear that if Israel continues to rule the 2 million Palestinians of the West Bank, they plus Israel's own 1.4 million Arab citizens will ultimately outnumber them and Israel will cease to be a Jewish state.
Modiin, a town of 60,000 of honey-colored row houses midway between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, is typical of the change of mind. Here the political landscape has left many voters wavering between parties, but in agreement that the West Bank has become a burden.
In a small neighborhood mall, gift shop owner Nissim Levy said he voted for Sharon's Likud in 2003, but is now considering Kadima or Labor.
Levy, 41, said his longtime allegiance to Likud, the main proponent of settlement expansion, had been largely emotional and anchored in the belief that only hard-liners can make peace.
"Every time they (Likud leaders) said they will bring peace, they tricked me," he said. "They took my (tax) money and transferred it to the ... settlements."
Modiin, built in the past 12 years, is close to the West Bank, but was largely peaceful during the Palestinian uprising. However, sales at Levy's second gift shop, in Tel Aviv's main bus terminal, near the scene of several suicide bombings, dropped by half in the past five years, he said.
Another Modiin voter, technician Ofer Chen, 39, said he's voting Labor, after supporting a smaller secular-rights party in 2003. Yet while Labor chief Peretz hopes to resume peace talks with the Palestinians, Chen said he prefers unilateral Israeli steps for now.
"We saw that land for peace didn't work," he said. "They (the Palestinians) didn't get much territory, and we didn't get any peace."
While Israel's secular majority is rallying around the new consensus, the tribalism that dominated Israeli politics for many years hasn't disappeared. Large subgroups _ Russians, Arabs, the ultra-Orthodox _ tend to vote for specialty parties. In all, 31 lists are competing, including four catering to Arabs, three to religious voters, one to pensioners and one seeking to legalize marijuana.
One dark horse is Israel Beitenu, which appeals to Russian immigrants and proposes border shifts to detach Arab populations from Israel. Polls predicted it would quadruple its seats to 12.
Palestinians will be watching on election night, whether on Israeli channels -- many speak Hebrew from years of work or imprisonment in Israel -- or on Arab satellite stations.
Yousef Zada, 60, who owns an electrical appliance store in Gaza City, said he will watch the results on Israel's Channel 2. He expressed pessimism about the future, saying most of his goods are imported from Israel and with Hamas in power, Israel will be more inclined to close the borders.
"The picture is very grim, dark black," he said, drawing on a waterpipe.
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