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Olmert talks with Livni, Sunday. (AP)
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| By Israel Insider staff and partners March 27, 2006 |
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The centrist Kadima Party dropped in opinion polls published Monday, a day before Israel's elections, a sign that it could be difficult for acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to establish a ruling coalition that will back his plan to withdraw from parts of Judea and Samaria and draw Israel's final borders by 2010.
Kadima - established by Ariel Sharon weeks before he suffered a massive stroke on Jan. 4 - still holds a commanding lead over the left-center Labor Party and the hawkish Likud Party.
But if Kadima only pulls in 34 of 120 parliamentary seats, as polls predicted Monday, Olmert may have to include in his coalition hard-line parties that oppose Judean and Samarian withdrawals.
Thirty-one parties are running, but fewer than half are expected to land seats in the parliament. No official campaigning is allowed on Monday, the day before the election. Israeli soldiers in units along the Lebanon border began voting Sunday, the military said.
In the Gaza Strip, incoming Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas was to address the Palestinian parliament later Monday, at the start of a two-day session to approve the new Hamas government. The Islamic militants control a majority in the legislature, and approval is assured.
With Hamas formally taking over, two months after its election victory, the Palestinian Authority is expected to become increasingly isolated, because the militants refuse to recognize Israel, renounce violence and recognize existing peace agreements. Israel reiterated Sunday that it would stop dealing with the Palestinian Authority and switch its focus to international aid organizations.
On the eve of the Israeli election, Israeli police tightened security throughout the country, fearing Palestinian terrorists would launch an attack in an attempt to influence the outcome of the vote, as has happened in the past.
Police also closed a hotly disputed holy site in the Old City of Jerusalem to visitors Monday. The Al Aqsa Mosque compound, built on the ruins of the biblical Jewish temples, is a magnet for extremists.
Jerusalem police spokesman Shmuel Ben-Ruby said Muslim worshippers would be allowed into the site, with is administered by Muslim authorities.
In Gaza, Israeli aircraft fired missiles Monday at a group of Palestinians preparing to launch homemade rockets at Israel, killing an Islamic Jihad terrorist, Palestinian security officials and the army said. Earlier Monday, the air force fired missiles at a group of militants, wounding two people, Palestinian security officials and the army said.
The Israeli air force frequently launches air strikes in Gaza, aiming for top militants and cells responsible for almost daily rocket fire.
Monday's polls, the last before the vote, predicted Labor would be the second largest party in Israel's parliament. The hawkish Likud, headed by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, would come in third, racking up between 13-15 seats, a serious blow to a party that dominated Israeli politics for most of the past three decades.
A Dahaf Institute poll published in the Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot showed Kadima had lost two seats, dropping to 34, Labor remained steady at 21 and Likud had dropped one to 13. The survey of 1,115 eligible voters had an error margin of 3 percentage points.
A Smith Institute poll published in the English-language daily, The Jerusalem Post, had Kadima pulling in between 33-34 seats, Labor between 20-21 seats and Likud steady at 15. The poll had an error margin of 4.5 percentage points.
The hawkish Israel Beitenu, an immigrants' party headed by Avigdor Lieberman, an émigré from the former Soviet Union with a tough-guy image, is expected to make a strong showing. Polls predict Lieberman will win 12 seats, up from two he holds now.
Running on a platform of swapping Arabs for Jews when drawing Israel's final borders, Lieberman's strength could make it most difficult for Olmert to establish a coalition that supports his withdrawal plans, political analysts said.
The establishment of Kadima in November shook up Israeli politics. For the first time, a centrist party has a chance of upending the two largest movements, Labor and Likud. When Sharon established the party, it was polling more than 40 seats, but since his stroke, Kadima's strength has diminished somewhat.
"Kadima's central problem ... is that it is suddenly becoming a mood party and this is not a healthy situation," Yaron Dekel, a political analyst with Israel Radio, said. "A few weeks ago it was high, and it was the bon-ton of the elections. But time has passed and there is an erosion process, and the erosion is occurring in Kadima."
Low voter turnout and swing voters, who pollsters say make up about 10 percent of eligible voters, could change the outcome at the last minute, political analysts said.
Olmert could be denied the premiership if the hard-line parties - currently polling 50 seats together - rack up 60 seats. Israel's political system allows any movement that can pull together a coalition with a majority of 61 to be the ruling party. No party has ever won an outright majority in Israel's 58-year history.
Olmert's unilateral pullout
Olmert's plan, which he calls "consolidation," has breathed life into an election campaign that has been sleepy.
Olmert proposes completing the security barrier between Israel and the West Bank that has been under construction for more than four years, incorporating main settlement blocs on the "Israeli" side and moving settlers outside the security barrier into the blocs.
Olmert said he would try to build a consensus in the fractious Israeli public to back his plan. Settlers, hawkish supporters and most Orthodox Jews hotly opposed Sharon's unilateral pullout from Gaza last summer, forcing Sharon to reshuffle his Cabinet, leave Likud and create Kadima.
So far there is no sign of moderation among opponents of unilateral Israeli pullbacks. Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu told Israel Radio that Olmert's plan would only bring Hamas closer to Israel. "These borders that our political rivals are proposing will not be defensible," Netanyahu said. "No one will agree to them."
Up to now the U.S. and Europe have opposed Israeli settlements in Judea and Samaria and have called for borders to be fixed through negotiations, not unilateral action, but Olmert remained hopeful.
"I have a basis to believe that there is great openness in the United States and in other places to listen to these positions and also to seriously discuss them," Olmert told Israel Radio on Sunday in the latest of a series of pre-election appearances in local news media.
Olmert said he would give Hamas some time to show whether it would accept basic demands put by Israel and the Western world: recognizing Israel, endorsing interim peace accords and renouncing violence after a history of dispatching suicide bombers into Israel.
AP contributed to this report.
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