Wishful thinking, disinformation, or just plain good news?
As a result of world pressure, Iran halted its nuclear weapons development program in the fall of 2003. But it continues to enrich uranium, which means it may still be able to develop a weapon between 2010 and 2015, senior US intelligence officials said Monday.
That finding, presented in the just-released National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, represents a dramatic improvement over the previous Estimate of two years ago, which have indicated that Iran was striving for an offensive capability and continuing its weapons development program. The report suggests that Iran is susceptible to diplomatic pressure, the officials said.
''Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005,'' states the unclassified summary of the secret report.
Officials said the findings suggest that diplomacy has effectively contained Iran's nuclear ambitions. But President Bush's national security adviser, Stephen Hadley, said the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains ''a serious problem.''
Despite the reported suspension of its weapons program, Tehran may ultimately be difficult to dissuade from developing a nuclear bomb because Iran believes such a weapon would give it leverage to achieve its national security and foreign policy goals, the assessment concluded.
The estimate, Hadley said, suggests that Bush ''has the right strategy: intensified international pressure along with a willingness to negotiate a solution that serves Iranian interests, while ensuring that the world will never have to face a nuclear armed Iran.''
Officials said the new findings suggest that diplomacy has been effective in containing Iran's nuclear ambitions.
"This is good news in that the US policy coupled with the policies and actions of those who have been our partners appear to have had some success. Iran seems to have been pressured," an unnamed US official said. "Given that good news, we don't want to relax. We want to keep those pressures up."
Hadley added: "The bottom line is this: for that strategy to succeed, the international community has to turn up the pressure on Iran with diplomatic isolation, United Nations sanctions, and with other financial pressure and Iran has to decide it wants to negotiate a solution."
National Intelligence Estimates are said to represent the most authoritative written judgments of all 16 US spy agencies.
Click on the blue headline to read a Talkback comment and respond to it. Click on the icon to send a private email to the talkback writer. The icon appears only if the writer has decided to be contacted. If no popup window appears, please make sure your popup blocker allows israelinsider.com.
icon to send a private email to the talkback writer. The icon appears only if the writer has decided to be contacted. If no popup window appears, please make sure your popup blocker allows israelinsider.com.