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Internal Security Minister Avi Dichter
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| By Israel Insider staff December 15, 2007 |
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Internal security minister and former Shin Bet head Avi Dichter spoke out against the US intelligence report which claimed with "moderate confidence" that Iran is no longer racing to develop nuclear weapons. A senior minister from PM Ehud Olmert's own Kadima party, Dichter indicated that the evident acceptance by the US of a nuclear-armed Iran could spark a "regional Yom Kippur" -- a reference to the 1973 War in which Israel was surprised on two fronts and nearly defeated.
He chose the term "misconception" to drive home a sense of danger, a term used by the official Agranot commission of inquiry in 1974 to describe the complacent attitude of Israel's leaders and military commanders prior to the Yom Kippur war.
He said that "we know the threat to be ongoing and palpable" for Israel and a whole region within the range of Iran's ballistic missiles, including Europe and North Africa. Israel and other threatened nations must help the US in every way possible, including by their intelligence, to correct its misconception.
"The American misconception concerning Iran's nuclear weapons may lead to a regional Yom Kippur, in which Israel will be among the countries that are threatened," said Dichter, speaking at a "Cultural Shabbat" talk in Bat Yam.
Dichter blamed the Israeli government for failing to provide the United States with insufficient information. "The softened intelligence report proves that Israel failed to provide the Americans with the whole picture concerning the Iranian nuclear threat," he said.
"Something went wrong in the American blueprint for analyzing the severity of the Iranian nuclear threat," he said, in one of the sharpest critiques of the US intelligence analysis yet offered by an Israeli cabinet member.
When asked about Israel's ability to strike Iran on its own, Dichter voiced doubt about the Jewish state's ability to go it alone. Despite Israel's status as the world's fourth largest defense exporter, he said, it is not a superpower. "It is a state, and it can only be a superpower for a few hours. The fight against Iran has to be led by a superpower."
That, evidently, is not going to happen during the Bush Administration.
Olmert appears to accept the new US approach, and has weakly responded to the intelligence report by repeating that Iran was still a threat and that Israel was still convinced that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's had nuclear aspirations.
The reality, of course, is that Dichter realizes that the NIE report was clearly not a bureaucratic miscalculation but rather the paper cover for a strategic re-alignment by the United States, in which the Bush Administration plans to open negotiations -- brokered by Saudi Arabia -- with Iran as well as Syria, and to reach accommodations with Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel will be expected to pay the price in territory both in Jerusalem and the West Bank, the disputed Har Dov in northern Israel, and on the Golan Heights.
Olmert, it appears, is willing to give in on all fronts -- a fact which seems to be making even some of his senior ministers -- including but not only Dichter and Defense Minister Ehud Barak -- nervous, although those two have in the past expressed willingness to put the Golan on the chopping block for a rapprochement with Syria, and put off indefinitely a serious operation in Gaza, even as rockets and mortars continue to rain on southern Israel at a rate of more than 6 per day. Last week more than 24 rockets fell in a single day.
Dichter cautioned that retired US general James Jones, who heads the mechanism to judge the implementation of road map obligations, could inaccurately assess the situation on the ground and make serious errors of judgment regarding the Palestinians' adherence to their commitments -- once again, hinting that the American judgment is clouded by the need to make the facts on the ground correspond to their strategic political tilt away from Israel.
The "US could make a mistake and decide that the Palestinians have fulfilled their commitments, which could entail very serious consequences from Israel's perspective," Dichter warned.
Regarding Gaza, Dichter said there was nothing to discuss with Hamas, which he described as "an organization of murderers." He called on Israel to "create massive deterrence against Hamas, of the type that will bring the rocket fire and terror to a halt by any means, starting from a massive attack and sanctions, until they understand that it does not pay to fire Kassams."
"Israel cannot allow a situation in which Hamas conducts a war of attrition from Gaza, while Israel is simultaneously holding negotiations with the Palestinians," Dichter said.
He added that the Old City of Jerusalem was unquestionably part of Israeli Jerusalem, but regarding Syria, conceded that there could be no agreement without Israel withdrawing from the Golan, and that the question was which guarantees Israel would receive in return.
Despite Dichter's expressed doubts, there are no indications that any Kadima or Labor ministers are willing to bolt the Olmert government anytime soon, despite the prospect of a withering Winograd report expected before the end of the year. |
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