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Qassam launch team: too cheap, too fast for Iron Dome
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| By Israel Insider staff February 23, 2008 |
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Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was supposedly surprised to learn last Sunday that the Iron Dome defense system, approved last year and supposed to protect Israel's citizens against Qassam rockets, cannot help Sderot inhabitants. "Recent tests found the system to be effective against rockets fired from more than four kilometers away, but not against those fired from closer range," Haaretz noted. Because Sderot is less than two kilometers from Beit Hanun, from which the rockets are fired, Iron Dome will not help.
In January, Olmert implied that Iron Dome was almost ready. "Just over one year ago, Prime Minister Olmert and then Defense Minister Amir Peretz approved the Iron Dome and Magic Wand anti-missile systems. The latter is designed to defend against 40-250 kilometer-range -- 24 miles to 150 miles range -- missiles. When it is operational, it will protect Israeli citizens against missiles such as the Fajr and Zilzal. Iron Dome is designed to intercept 4-70 kilometer-range rockets such as the Qassam, Grad and Katyusha," the Israeli statement said. It did not mention that its expected delivery date was three years hence.
The MFA said Olmert "was briefed by Rafael Chairman of the Board Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Ilan Biran and Rafael Director-General Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Yedidya Yaari regarding the development of the aforementioned systems, which are among the most advanced in the world."
"The (Israeli) Defense Ministry has requested that the Iron Dome system be prepared for deployment as soon as possible. It is currently due to be operational by early 2010, when it will be deployed in the south of the country," the MFA said. However, the statement also noted, "The Rafael directors emphasized that no system currently in use, including those incorporating lasers, are able to provide a solution to Qassams."
"Prime Minister Olmert asked the Rafael directors to make every effort to accelerate the development of the Iron Dome system, which will be used -- first and foremost -- to protect residents of the south against Qassam rockets from the Gaza Strip," the statement said. "My government was the first to decide on the development and deployment of defensive systems against the short-range missiles that threaten the Israeli home front. I am proud of the ability of our defense industries to respond to the challenge set by the government. I ask you to develop the Iron Dome system as quickly as possible and to provide us the possibility of deploying as many Iron Dome systems as possible," Olmert said.
Olmert, who just two months ago declared that "we will not fortify ourselves to death," was compelled to approve recommendations to fortify 8,000 homes in Sderot and the communities of the "Gaza envelope," to the tune of NIS 300 million ($80 million). But just a day later, it as discovered there were insufficient funds and only 3,600 homes in Sderot and the Gaza envelope could be fortified within the next two years.
The decision to focus on the development of Iron Dome raises so many questions that an examination of the process that led to it is in order. The questions include, for example, whether the decision was influenced by considerations relating to commercial bodies, the likely implications of a deal to export this defense system to a foreign country which is not located in the NATO continents (America and Europe), and the motives of some of those involved in the process. It may well be that nothing concrete lurks behind these questions, but we must not ignore the need to find satisfactory answers for them.
Haaretz's Reuven Pedatzur, who broke the analysis of Iron Dome's limitations, writes: "The fact that Iron Dome is not effective against short-range rockets and therefore cannot protect Sderot was long known to the system's developers and to the Defense Ministry officials who chose to focus on it. For some reason, they decided not to go public with their information. When the Defense Ministry officials, led by the defense minister, promised that the residents of Sderot would be protected after the installation of the Iron Dome system, they knew they would not be able to deliver on this promise."
"One need not be privy to classified information in order to understand that Iron Dome is not the solution to the Qassam rockets. The data are public knowledge: The Qassam's speed in the air is 200 meters per second. The distance from the edge of Beit Hanun to the outskirts of Sderot is 1,800 meters. Therefore, a rocket launched from Beit Hanun takes about nine seconds to hit Sderot. The developers of Iron Dome at Rafael Advance Defense Systems know that the preparations to simply launch the intercept missiles at their target take up to about 15 seconds (during which time the system locates the target, determines the flight path and calculates the intercept route). Obviously, then, the Qassam will slam into Sderot quite a number of seconds before the missile meant to intercept it is even launched."
Worse: "Iron Dome will also not be able to cope with rockets that are launched much farther away. According to data available from Rafael, the average flight time of the intercept missile to the point of encounter is another 15 seconds. In other words, to intercept a rocket using Iron Dome requires at least 30 seconds. This is the time it takes a Qassam to cover six kilometers."
Pedatzur wonders why this information did not get to Olmert, especially when an official in the Sderot area raised the issue of the too-long response time in a letter to Defense Minister Ehud Barak, which merited an evasive response. "The reply of the Defense Ministry was sent to the council head on February 10. The letter is signed by attorney Ruth Bar, the defense minister's assistant. "The analysis [done by the Defense Ministry] found that in regard to the threats that were identified by the warning system during April-November 2007, one Iron Dome battery has the ability to cope and cover an area far larger than that of Sderot. The capability of Iron Dome to cope with mortar shells has not yet been examined in depth. I will add that the issue of the flight time cannot be detailed in this letter, owing to security considerations." The response that an Iron Dome battery covers a "far larger" area than that of Sderot ignores the more salient point that it doesn't cover Sderot!
The Iron Dome system is also completely impractical economically. Pedatzur says that each missile will cost about $100,000. Kassam rockets cost a tiny fraction of that. Thus if the Palestinian make thousands of Kassams, Israel will need to produce thousands of Iron Dome missiles.
The selection of Iron Dome from among 14 proposals, approved by both defense ministers
Amir Peretz and Ehud Barak, is incomprehensive when a rejected system was the laser-based Nautilus defense system, whose development is nearly complete and whose effectiveness was proved in a series of tests (100 percent success in 46 tests, including success in intercepting mortar shells). Pedatzur notes that a version of the system is already in place in the north, protecting Kiryat Shmona, and an evolved American version could be installed in 18 month, twice as fast as the Iron Dome.
When Pedatzur asked why Israel rejected the laser system, the Defense Ministry spokesman's
"reply is studded with inaccuracies, to say the least. The Nautilus / Skyguard will not be "far more costly" than Iron Dome, but probably "far less costly." Nor is it clear what the Defense Ministry spokesman is referring to when he states that Nautilus "did not achieve the goal of 100 percent hits but far less."
Part of the explanation for the opposition to the laser system may lie in the fact that it was not a solely Israeli product, and that it therefore could not be exported freely without US permission. Pedatzur also implied that the decision was influenced by the desire to sell the Iron Dome system to a foreign country, which he implies is Singapore. A Kadima member of Knesset who pushed for Iron Dome was reportedly a paid adviser to the government of Singapore.
The decision may ultimately wind up in court, as Sderot residents have petitioned to force the defense ministry to install the Nautilus laser-based system and to order the Skyguard.
Dr. Aaron Lerner of IMRA points to another important implication of the Iron Dome's limitations. Its inability to stop short-range rocket fire, and its prohibitively high per-missile costs means that Israel has no solution to stop rockets fired from the West Bank. "Back in August 2007 Barak took the position that a precondition for any significant withdrawal from the West Bank is the development of defenses against rocket fire. It now turns out that Iron Dome cannot meet this precondition. |
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