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Palestinian supporters of Islamic Hamas wave flags during a rally in Hebron, Monday. (AP)
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| By Associated Press January 26, 2006 |
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Hamas' strong showing in Palestinian parliamentary elections will encourage Israel's go-it-alone approach to Mideast peacemaking if Israeli officials feel they have no one to talk to on the other side.
But if the elections pull the Islamic militants off the streets and into the corridors of power - shifting their focus from terror to governance - prospects for peace could be improved.
Exit polls on Wednesday showed the ruling Fatah Party winning the most seats in the 132-seat Palestinian Legislative Council, with Hamas placing a strong second. With neither side apparently winning an outright majority, however, Fatah might be forced to invite Hamas into a governing coalition.
"If this sharing of power will satisfy Hamas then they will have less of a need to use military means to be heard and that could possibly be good for the peace process," said Daoud Kuttab, director of the Institute of Modern Media at Jerusalem's Al-Quds University.
Yet Hamas has shown little willingness to renounce its charter calling for Israel's destruction or to give up its weapons, despite its decision to uphold a cease-fire declared a year ago.
Israeli officials refused to comment on Wednesday's exit poll results. But in a speech on Tuesday night, acting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert hinted that Israel might pursue more unilateral moves - like last summer's Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip - if Israel feels there is no Palestinian negotiating partner in the wake of the parliament vote.
"We would prefer an agreement," he said. "If our expected partners in the negotiations ... do not uphold their commitments, we will preserve the Israeli interest in every way." He described Israel's interest as separating from the Palestinians in order to preserve a Jewish majority in the lands Israel controls.
Palestinians see Israel's unilateralism - an approach pioneered by the ailing Ariel Sharon - as an affront because it allows Israel to draw borders on its own, usurping land the Palestinians claim for their future state.
Many Israelis see unilateralism as a way out of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict without having to wait for an elusive peace treaty, but others see it as a grave danger because it gives up territory without gaining Palestinian security guarantees in return.
In his first policy speech since taking over from Sharon, who suffered a massive stroke on Jan. 4, Olmert said Israel will be "able to act in any circumstance, faced with any scenario, in order to preserve its security and political horizons."
Before the vote, Hamas leaders said they had no desire to take over the reins of power because they didn't want to have to talk to Israel. Placing second in the race could give the militants a neat justification to remain on the sidelines of international diplomacy.
At the same time, Hamas members will be in a good position to demand key Cabinet positions such as education and health, which they have said is their main interest anyway.
Both Israel and the United States brand Hamas a terrorist group and refuse to deal with it. But a more nuanced policy now appears possible, with Israelis already debating whether it would be wiser to engage Hamas and a U.S. official on Tuesday refusing to rule out negotiations with a Palestinian government that includes Hamas.
"All in all, I think the elections will restrain Hamas rather than increase the violence," said Danny Rubinstein, Arab and Palestinian affairs correspondent for the Israeli daily Haaretz.
Richard Howitt, a European Union observer to Wednesday's elections, said Hamas' respect for the democratic process during the campaign and its decision to refrain from violence could be a "sign they might be heading down a path of democratic transformation."
However, he said his talks during the elections with key Hamas candidates "gave little room for optimism."
Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas' top candidate, on Wednesday said that his group would not lay down its weapons - a central demand of Abbas, Israel and the West. Another candidate, Mahmoud Zahar, said Hamas is "not going to change a single word" in its covenant calling for Israel's destruction.
Still, Hamas candidates have indicated in recent days that they won't seek to tie Abbas' hands in any future negotiations with Israel, though they said they'll want to have a say on how those talks are handled.
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