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Hezbollah Shaikh Nasrallah (AP file)
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| By Associated Press July 19, 2006 |
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Despite a flurry of diplomatic activity, Israel is in no hurry to end its Lebanon offensive because it sees this as a unique opportunity to crush Hezbollah. Also working against a quick cease-fire is Iranian influence over Lebanese guerrillas and U.S., European and even Arab acquiescence to the Israeli campaign.
After days of resisting the idea, Israeli leaders have given their tacit support to a U.N. proposal for a beefed up international peacekeeping force for south Lebanon, and appear to have scaled back demands that Hezbollah disarm as a condition for a cease-fire.
At the same time, however, Israel is making it clear there will be no end to its weeklong offensive until Hezbollah guerrillas are neutralized -- either through diplomacy or force.
It's not a black-and-white issue, to be sure. The prospect of increasingly deadly Hezbollah rocket fire on major Israeli cities and the economic fallout from war could still push Israelis to seek an end to the hostilities. And the overwhelming pounding by Israel, combined with Hezbollah's difficulty in replenishing its arsenal amid an Israeli blockade of Lebanon, also bodes well for a cease-fire.
A new poll published Tuesday revealed that nearly nine out of 10 Israelis say the country's aerial campaign in Lebanon is justified, with 60 percent saying Israel should fight until Hezbollah is destroyed. Despite being subjected to rocket fire that has already killed 13 civilians, Israelis are banding together in a common sense of purpose reminiscent of the 1991 Gulf War, when Saddam Hussein rained down Scud missiles on their cities.
As much as anything else, the Israeli offensive that has killed more than 225 people in Lebanon is about sending a strong message of deterrence to all future would-be attackers of Israel. Critics of the campaign warn that it could backfire by stoking hatred of Israel and the United States and undermining moderate forces in the Middle East.
Israel launched its offensive last week after Hezbollah guerrillas crossed into Israel, capturing two Israeli soldiers, killing another eight and opening a second front for an Israeli army already fighting Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip following the capture of another Israeli soldier.
A decisive blow against Hezbollah, say many Israelis, is also a hit against Syrian and Iranian interests in the Middle East -- with potentially far-reaching consequences for the U.S. war in Iraq and the global fight against terror.
This is "a decisive moment in the confrontation of radical Islamism with the rest of the world and in that sense pushing for a premature outcome is a strategic mistake," said Eran Lerman, director of the Israel office of the American Jewish Committee.
Nonsense, said Palestinian lawmaker Saeb Erekat.
"This war is just deepening the whole of extremism, violence and counter violence ... There are some voices that are saying 'we are going to take out Hezbollah and take out Hamas militarily.' You know and I know that this is not going to happen."
Mounting civilian casualties are likely to undermine Western hopes that the Lebanese people will turn against Hezbollah for provoking the crisis and reversing the country's hard-fought economic renaissance following decades of civil strife.
Hezbollah this week called for an unconditional ceasefire, but at the same time threatened to unleash a "cyclone" of rockets on Israel. The guerrillas may be trying to drag Israel into a ground offensive, and it's possible they'd rather empty out their arsenal by firing it on Israel than surrender it in a cease-fire deal.
Hezbollah probably can't publicly push hard for a cease-fire without losing valuable support from the Arab public. A big part of the group's mystique is built on the perception that it's one of the few Arab groups to have never backed down to the Israelis.
Hezbollah, like Hamas, is supported, armed and financed by Iran and Syria. Iran's foreign minister said on a visit to Damascus this week that a cease-fire and prisoner swap between Hezbollah and Israel would be "fair and acceptable."
However, most Israelis believe Iran will do whatever it can to torpedo any cease-fire and keep the rockets falling on Israel.
Syria probably has no strong reason to push for a cease-fire now because it hasn't been hit. Even so, neither Syria nor Iran has a long-term interest in having Hezbollah decimated.
Unlike world reaction to Israel's military actions against the Palestinians, criticism of Israel's actions in Lebanon has been decidedly muted, with U.S. and European officials saying Israel has the right to defend itself after being attacked.
The lack of strong condemnation from major Arab countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which fear a public groundswell of Islamic fundamentalism, has been duly noted by the Israelis, who see it as something of a green light to push ahead against Hezbollah.
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