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Diplomatic immunity? Nasrallah is reported holed up in the Iranian embassy in the Lebanese capital
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| By Jonathan Ariel August 9, 2006 |
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Iran and Syria have increased their involvement in the current war, after having reached a joint decision that the risk of Israeli retaliation against them is minimal.
According to a western intelligence source, which enjoys good access in Teheran and Damascus, this decision was facilitated by Israel's reluctance to take any action against Syria, despite the fact that Israeli intelligence is aware of the growing involvement of Damascus and Teheran.
Nasrallah transferred his command post to the Iranian embassy in Beirut almost two weeks ago. The Iranian authorities got confirmation that Israel was aware of this when Channel 2 news released the information earlier this week. The fact that the Iranian embassy has not received a visit from the IAF even after this became public knowledge convinced the Iranian leadership that Israel's political leadership lacks the stomach for a showdown, and that they therefore can continue to wage a war of attrition by proxy with impunity, causing Israel growing casualties as well as economic and diplomatic damage without risking any consequences.
In their eyes, the government has exhibited weakness and hesitatation since day one. The initial signal was the Israeli government's reluctance to declare a national emergency, which they took as a sign that the leadership was unwilling to even admit the possibility of involvement in a total war. The next development was the government's initial delay in calling up reserves, which they saw as a further sign of meekness emanating from an untested leadership.
The Qana affair was another Iranian move to test the waters. It has already been proven beyond a shadow of doubt that the entire affair was stage-managed by Hezbollah. The reason for this move was to check what Israel's reaction would be to adverse criticism coming in the wake of an accusation of large-scale civilian deaths.
The Israeli reaction was obliging, a panic followed by a statement to suspend air activities for 48 hours. Assad and Ahmadinejad saw in this response confirmation of their suspicions that Olmert and Peretz, both security neophytes, lacked the confidence needed to take them on, despite the IDF's superiority over their militaries, and that Israel's political leadership would vacillate rather than take decisive action.
The fact that Qana was chosen was not coincidental. The Iranians were aware of the fact that the name was seared in the memory of Israel and the media, because of the accidental Israeli shelling of the village during the 1996 Grapes of Wrath campaign. That incident caused major civilian casualties, generating diplomatic and media fallout that ended in then-Premier Peres ending the campaign prematurely, setting the stage for his electoral defeat a few months later, and providing the grounds for Hezbollah to massively upgrade its military and political infrastructure in Lebanon.
As soon as this decision was reached, both countries have increased their overt involvement, to prevent a Hezbollah collapse. Syria, at Iran's request, has allowed Hezbollah to set up a command post at Anjar, a Syrian military base adjacent to the Lebanese border in the Beqaa area. In addition to senior Hezbollah commanders, the base is also host to officers from the Syrian army and Iranian Pasderan (Revolutionary Islamic Guards), who liaison with the Hezbollah commanders, providing them with the best electronic surveillance of Israel at the disposal of the Syrian and Iranian military intelligence agencies.
The efforts to replenish Hezbollah's supplies of rockets is also being coordinated and managed from this base. Iranian- and Syrian-made rockets and missiles, loaded on pack animals, are entering Lebanon via narrow donkey tracks which have been used for decades by local smugglers. Due to the hilly and wooded terrain, the IAF cannot spot every shipment, and some are getting through. IDF intelligence is aware of the situation. Brig. General Yossi Beiditz, a senior military intelligence officer, has been quoted as saying: "Iran is actively involved in running and managing the war, and together with Syria is replenishing Hezbollah's supplies of rockets". Another senior IDF officer has voiced similar sentiments, saying that as long as Israel takes no decisive action against these convoys resupplying Hezbollah, there is no way the IDF can end the ongoing shelling of Israel's northern towns and cities. Neither the Prime Minister's office nor the IDF spokesperson denied Beiditz's statement, but refused to comment on it at all.
Iran has been trying to refresh Hezbollah's supply of medium and long range missiles, most of which have been destroyed by the IAF. This is proving more difficult, since these missiles, with their large launchers cannot be smuggled on mules traversing narrow mountainous donkey tracks. According to unconfirmed reports, Iran has succeeded in getting to Hezbollah one battery of upgraded Zelzal missiles, which have a range of over 200-300 kilometers (120-200 miles).
However, launching such a long-range missile is problematic for Hezbollah. Unlike Katyusha rockets (range up to 70 kilometers), which can be launched from small and highly mobile launchers, missiles such as the Zelzal require large launchers on heavy trucks, and longer launch preparation times, increasing the time-frame they are exposed and vulnerable to IAF bombing.
IDF sources have confirmed that several long range-missiles launches (unclear whether Zelzal or Khaibar missiles) have been foiled by bombing attacks in the middle of launch preparations. One launch, early in the war was prevented at the last minute when it was bombed as it was lifting off. Some Khaibars, which require shorter launch procedures than the Zelzal, have landed in Afula and Hadera. One Zelzal missile has actually been launched, but due to the hurried launch preparations to avoid an air raid, the guidance system was improperly set and the missile landed harmlessly several kilometers offshore, in the sea opposite a town in central Israel.
If the reports regarding the upgraded Zelzal are true, it is unclear whether this battery is in Lebanon or, as seems more likely, in Hezbollah's hands on Syrian soil. A more important question is whether Syria will take the next step, and allow Hezbollah to launch the missiles from its territory, where they are expected to be safe from the IAF.
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