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M.J. Rosenberg is Director of Policy Analysis for , a long time Capitol Hill staffer and former editor of AIPAC's Near East Report.
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By M.J. Rosenberg
March 10, 2007
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Several readers have asked me to comment on a Ha'aretz feature that rates Presidential candidates based on their views on Israel. Shmuel Rosner, the influential Ha'aretz correspondent (he also writes for SLATE and other outlets) states the mission of the project he calls, "The Israel Factor." "Each month, a group of distinguished Israeli panelists, all of them experts on American policy and politics ... will try to assess the candidates' positions on various Israel-related issues, and deliver their verdict on whom they consider to be the best candidate for Israel."
It's a troubling concept because neither Rosner nor anyone else can claim that a group of Israeli "experts" in any way reflect the views of Jewish American voters. The views of Israelis about who is or isn't "good for Israel" is no more relevant than a similar poll of Israelis or Jewish Americans about the upcoming French Presidential elections.
It is also offensive. It would be one thing if the "Israel Factor" was published only in the Hebrew version of Ha'aretz for local consumption. But it is published in the English-language version which is primarily read here. As such, it smacks of a bunch of non-Americans telling Americans how to vote. Imagine how Israelis would react if a group of American "experts" rated their candidates for Prime Minister in a Hebrew language paper!
Of course, everyone has opinions about American elections simply because American policies affect the entire world. The opinions of non-Americans, however, do not say anything about how American Jews feel.
Jewish Americans have vastly diverging ideas of what it means to be good for Israel. The minority that tends to use a candidate's stand on Israel as its single-issue litmus test is invariably pro-status quo and sanguine about the occupation. It prefers a President who would avoid promoting Arab-Israeli negotiations and would give Israel carte blanche to hold on to the West Bank forever.
But the vast majority of American Jews is not enamored of the status quo and wants a President who would proactively pursue Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. To put it simply, the voters who care about Israel the most are the voters who are most anxious to see the killing end, once and for all. They want a President who will encourage the diplomatic process, not avoid it.
There is a danger about a survey like this. Although the sophisticated reader knows that Israeli experts cannot claim to speak for Jews here, less sophisticated people could conclude that Rosner is essentially producing a candidates' guide that voters can carry into the voting booth.
Of course, they won't do that. Jewish voters are certainly not indifferent to a candidate's views on Israel. It is just that, without anti-Israel candidates in the race, Israel has not been a voting issue for Jews in Presidential elections for decades.
Most Jewish voters make their choices for President based on the whole host of issues that they care about. In the last Presidential election, for instance, the number one issue driving votes toward John Kerry (he received 78% of the Jewish vote) was his opposition to the Iraq war. (Incidentally, the Gallup poll two weeks ago showed that American Jews -- 78% again -- are with African-Americans, the segment of the population most opposed to the war and most convinced it was a mistake from the get-go.)
The flaws in Rosner's poll come through loud and clear in his most recent results. The three candidates deemed "best for Israel" are Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Newt Gingrich. All the Democratic contenders rate well below this top tier. Newt Gingrich! Newt is a significant political figure but I doubt that 5% of American Jews would choose him for President.
And, if history is any guide, when the November 2008 election comes around, American Jews are going to vote overwhelmingly Democratic for President, no matter which Democrat or Republican is the respective party's nominee.
We know that because since 1928, Jewish voters have chosen the Democratic candidate, usually with at least 75% of the total vote. This is not because they believe Democrats to be more pro-Israel but because, on the wide array of issues facing the American people, they have been more comfortable with the Democrats than with the Republicans.
To suggest that an American Jew living in New York or Des Moines votes based on considerations entirely different from his non-Jewish neighbors is insulting. It is also wrong. American Jews are Americans. That should not need to be said but perhaps it does. Candidates who address American Jews as if their only concern is Israel are out of line. In fact, they cross the line between pandering and out-and-out insulting the Jewish community.
Rosner is an Israeli and can be forgiven for not understanding that. He views American Jews as a community in exile. That is not how we view ourselves.
We do care about Israel, and deeply so. That is why we want to see Israel living in peace with the Palestinians. Those who think they will win our support by offering policies that promise Israel nothing but more war -- while assuming that their positions on domestic issues are less important to us -- will soon learn otherwise. This community has been called many things. "Stupid" is not among them.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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