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Michael Widlanski teaches political communication at the Rothberg
School of Hebrew University. is a specialist in Arab politics and communication whose doctorate dealt with the Palestinian broadcast media. He is a former reporter, correspondent and editor, respectively, at The New York Times, The Cox Newspapers-Atlanta Constitution, and The Jerusalem Post. He has also served as a special advisor to Israeli delegations to peace talks in
1991-1992 and as Strategic Affairs Advisor to the Ministry of Public Security, editing secret PLO Archives captured in Jerusalem.
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By Michael Widlanski
April 11, 2007
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A cartoon in the Yediot Aharonot newspaper this week sums up the situation of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his government.
It shows Olmert, Defense Minister Amir Peretz and many of their colleagues riding on a roller coaster with a broken track, ready to slide off into oblivion.
Olmert's amusement park ride does not amuse him, and he realizes he has to switch tracks quickly or suffer a dire fate.
As the domestic popularity of Israel's government reaches record lows, there are signs that Olmert, the most unpopular leader in Israel's history, may be forced or tempted to make dramatic war or peace moves within several weeks or months.
-- For the first time since the ceasefire in fighting along the Lebanese border last summer, Israeli troops fired into Lebanon at suspicious movements, possibly wild boars
-- This week, for the first time since last November's "ceasefire" with the Palestinians in Gaza, Israeli troops entered the area to kill or capture members of a squad planting bombs along the border fence;
-- For the first time since the Gaza "ceasefire," Israeli soldiers fired into Gaza at a Palestinian rocket team as they were preparing to launch rockets into Israel. [More than 200 rockets have been fired at Israel since November, and over 1,200 rockets since the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in mid-2005.]
"I am not a very popular prime minister," said Olmert repeatedly but understatedly during a recent televised appearance in front of his Kadima Party.
Some of Olmert's strongest supporters in the press-columnists or anchor-men at newspapers Yediot Aharonot and Ha'aretz and Voice of Israel radio and Channel Two television, have called for the beleaguered prime minister to make dramatic peace overtures to Syria, the Palestinians or Saudi Arabia in order to restore his popularity.
Yoel Marcus of Ha'aretz, for example, has suggested that Olmert ignore the Bush Administration's opposition to talks with Syria, and Olmert has seemed to be caught between the instinct to act boldly but not so boldly that he would upset Washington.
Olmert went on a media blitz this week showing that he would not allow his reputation to be sliced to ribbons like a salami, but would rather try to be a good hot dog: firm and flexible.
In a string of weekend interviews to coincide with the Passover holiday, Olmert, whose approval ratings are at three percent and who is under several corruption investigations, issued a flurry of contradictory signals:
-- Olmert rebuffed the Arab summit "peace plan," but offered to go to Saudi Arabia to talks to its primary author, King Abdullah.
-- Olmert allowed US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to take a message of peace to Syrian President Assad, but then issued a statement that Speaker Pelosi had not understood what Olmert really meant;
-- Olmert reiterated that Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas repeatedly "betrayed" him by failing to keep his promises, but still Olmert promised to meet with him on a regular basis.
Arab leaders and media hardly showed respect for Olmert or his government, several of whose ministers have been convicted of criminal offenses or are, like Olmert, under serious investigation.
"Mr. Olmert says that President Mahmoud Abbas has betrayed him," remarked Muhammad Dahlan, the national security advisor to Abbas and the "strongman" of Gaza, in a lengthy interview on PA official television this week
"But," asked Dahlan, referring to Abbas and Olmert, "how has he betrayed him? Do we have a military or strategic alliance with him?"
Olmert had previously called Dahlan a terrorist for his alleged involvement in the blowing up of an Israeli school bus several years ago, in which several Israeli children lost their legs. But this week Dahlan, appearing dapper in his trademark blazer and tie, poked fun at Israeli leaders repeatedly.
Dahlan demanded Israeli acceptance of the Arab summit "peace plan," rather than Palestinian compliance with promises to the United States and the European Union to control rocket attacks on Israel.
"We believe that we are following the directions of the Arab summit, and we think that that is enough," declared Abbas.
Abbas's advisor claimed no Israeli leader was smart enough to accept the Arab proposals, which include total Israeli withdrawal from lands captured in the defensive wars of 1967 and 1973 as well as re-settling several million Arabs inside Israel.
"I would not counsel the Palestinian people to dream about good economic and security ties with Israel," said Dahlan.
Meanwhile, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazy has been telling his officers and members of the Israeli Knesset that he believes Israel will have no choice but to make a major military move into Gaza where IDF intelligence says the PA and HAMAS have amassed 31 tons of high-grade explosives and thousands of automatic weapons.
Brig. Gen. (Res.) Fogel, the former Israeli military commander of Gaza, said Israel would have to act within two months because Hamas and Fatah are building tunnels and trenches like Hizballah in Lebanon.
His comments were echoed by Maj. Gen. Yoav Galant, current commander of Israel's southern front. "They imported 30 tons of explosives into Gaza this year," declared Galant, adding, "and this is not something to be used against the Fatah, but rather against Israel. This is to be used to create a different equation with Israel."
Both Galant and Fogel noted the increasing evidence of Iranian training and even personal direction of Palestinian gunmen.
"I think there no choice but to go to war," asserted Gen. Fogel.
On the other hand, Prime Minister Olmert has approved the sending of 5,000 more automatic weapons to the forces of Mahmoud Abbas-via Jordan and via Egypt-in the last few weeks, as a way of countering the growing strength of the forces of HAMAS [Arabic: harakat al-muqawwima al-Islamiyya], the Islamic Resistance Front, that controls the PA.]
This move has been supported by Defense Minister Amir Peretz, whose one-percent approval ratings are even lower than Olmert's, and it is clear that Peretz is also fighting for his political life, facing a Labor Party primary next month.
As a way of appealing to dovish and Arab elements in Labor, Peretz has repeatedly announced plans to arrest dismantle houses or outposts built by Israeli settlers, including a house in Hebron that Peretz admits is legally owned by the settlers.
Both Olmert and Peretz are fearful of the upcoming interim report by a commission of inquiry into last summer's war in Lebanon, even though the commission was hand-picked by Olmert and Peretz.
At the same time, it is clear that Israeli army (IDF) has not waited for the report, and its infantry, armor and engineering units have redoubled their training schedules, some of them holding the first real brigade and battalion-strength exercises in six years-both near Gaza and Lebanon.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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