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Emanuel A. Winston , Middle East analyst and commentator, writes extensively about geo-politics and war, often forecasting coming events in the region of the Middle East, including the relations between Washington and Jerusalem.
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By Emanuel A. Winston
May 23, 2007
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Israel is being pushed into attacking the terrorists in Gaza to try and stop their daily launching of Qassam rockets into Israel. If you are wondering why the Palestinians need Israel to retaliate for being attacked, consider the following:
Fatah, under the leadership of the President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen) has grown progressively weaker in power and influence in the face of its political rival, Hamas. Both Fatah and Hamas conduct terror operations, but Hamas is considered the more fanatically radical. An Israeli attack would bring him and Fatah the following benefits. The Israelis would destroy much of the Hamas infrastructure, including the tons of weapons and explosives which have been smuggled in through Rafah (town) across the Egyptian border. Hamas could suck Israel into a hot urban war, with high Israeli casualties and suicide bombings at which the terror group excels.
Since most of Abu Mazen's army wears (at least) two hats, one of Fatah and one of Hamas, they would join together in their perpetual fight against Israel.
For the above two benefits there is the matter of both sides unifying. Instead of fighting each other as they are now, their hostilities would be gathered to fight what they believe to be their common enemy, the Jewish State of Israel. Therefore, a modestly sized war NOW would benefit both Fatah and Hamas.
Israel is on the horns of a dilemma. With more Qassam Rockets flying out from Gaza, some with longer and more accurate range, more Israeli towns and cities are coming under fire. This was correctly predicted before Israel retreated. After their eviction, abandonment and destruction of those homes, farms, factories, businesses, schools, synagogue and even their cemeteries, all the 44 communities surrounding the judenrein Gaza Strip would be the communities at risk and under fire. Remember, the Knesset knew and voted that law in before the "Disengagement".
It has been reported that in one day, last Tuesday May 15th, several dozen Qassam Rockets were launched at Sderot and Ashkelon, as well as close-by kibbutzim. More than 30 civilians were injured, several critically. More than 180 have been launched in the past week.
What do Israeli leaders do? They have consistently restrained the IDF military from any serious retaliatory strikes to eliminate the launching sites, weapons' depots and terrorists' nests.
Olmert has received orders from Washington NOT to respond forcefully to these acts of war. As a supposedly sovereign nation, whose government is there to protect her citizens, Israel's present government has failed.
Worse yet, the Olmert government have allowed themselves to become hostages to the U.S. State Department's foreign policy of appeasing Arab Muslim terrorists and terror states, often at the expense of Israel's vulnerability to attack by her hostile neighbors.
While this doctrine may do well for the Arabist State Department and their allied multi-national oil companies, it has proven itself to be a deadly threat to Israel's survival. It also employs Israel's government as traitors to their own people and nation. Certain members of the government who act accordingly, should be subject to indictment for treason and brought to trial, speedily.
It is important to note that a war at this time would help Olmert and his Kadima Party stay in power for an extended period of time - even though Olmert's weak leadership in the 2006 War against Hezbollah in Lebanon proves that Olmert cannot pursue a defensive war successfully and should be replaced before the next operational attacks.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice does not want a retaliatory response by Israel where the U.S. investment in arms, training of Fatah and appeasing Saudi Arabia would be devastated by such Israeli action - if it were to be conducted by the IDF at the top of its form, rather than hamstrung by the weak leadership Olmert, 'et al' have demonstrated in the 2006 War.
Israel cannot allow her cities to be hit with missiles. As Olmert allows this carnage to continue, the firing range of the ever-improving rockets and missiles will soon reach Tel Aviv.
But, Abu Mazen and the leaders of Hamas need Israel to hit Gaza hard. That would give Abu Mazen stature and reason to release his CIA-trained army, using American weapons to fight Israel. Now Abu Mazen and Hamas will have a common purpose - even if it means that Gaza will or could be decimated. Naturally, Fatah and Hamas would be looked upon by the Europeans and the U.N. as being "unfairly" under siege by those "war-like" Jews.
Perhaps the Fatah-Hamas gave plan is to provoke a retaliatory attack by Israel so the U.N., E.U. (using NATO forces) and the U.S. to occupy Gaza and then on to Judea and Samaria.
A hot war would, indeed, serve their purposes.
As for Israeli, it is an ein breira ("no choice") decision. They cannot allow southern Israel to become a no-man's land due to daily barrages of Qassam rockets with injuries and fatalities.
The same things are happening on the Lebanese border where Hezbollah now re-armed with 20,000 Katyusha missile replenishment would like to make Israel's northern area another no-man's land. I wrote forecasting that scenario the day that Ehud Barak abandoned the safety zone in southern Lebanon. Some of my best friends were furious about that forecast although I had been writing about the accumulation of Hezbollah missiles several years prior. The 2006 Lebanon fiasco sadly proved my point. A saturation Katyusha barrage could force the Israeli communities in the North to simply pick-up and move to the center of the country -- until the missiles follow them there.
It's quite complicated, particularly when Israel is being guided by the most incompetent leadership she has ever had. In a crisis, the military may have to retire the current government leaders until a competent civilian infrastructure could be reconstructed.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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