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By Bruce S. Ticker
May 30, 2007
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It turns out that Amir Peretz is less popular among Jewish voters than George W. Bush. Not only was Peretz's 22 percent showing for the Labor leadership slightly below Bush's Jewish support in the 2004 presidential election, but bear in mind that the Labor Party has the support of only a small minority -- less than one-sixth by the results of the last election -- of the Israeli public.
For another two weeks, Peretz can cling to power as Labor leader because neither Ehud Barak nor Ami Ayalon could break the 40 percent barrier required for a candidate to win the election outright. Peretz may be a lame duck until the June 12 runoff election, but he still may provide the swing vote and play the dealmaker for deciding the runoff between Barak, a former prime minister, and Ayalon, a former chief of Shin Bet, Israel's state security service.
This government should have been dumped a long time ago, not as we approach the respective anniversaries for the two-front war in Gaza and Lebanon. Peretz's defeat was preceded by the resignation of Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz as the military chief of staff several months ago.
The next and final head to roll will be that of Ehud Olmert, who has stubbornly clung to power as prime minister and Kadima leader despite last summer's calamitous war in Lebanon that cost him whatever confidence the Israeli people and Israel's supporters had in him.
So far Israel has been spared a comparable crisis under this crew, but one never knows when a situation even more volatile than the current war of attrition could erupt. Few Israelis would trust Olmert -- his popularity is in the single-digits -- in a crisis.
We can only hope that Israeli politicians and the public finish the job before the Jewish state can get caught in another war.
Olmert's first big mistake was naming Peretz as Defense Minister. Except for his military stint, Peretz had absolutely no military experience. His on-the-job training proved to be a disaster. His hilarious incident of looking through capped binoculars -- three times -- proved to be emblematic of blind ignorance at the top.
Olmert's second mistake was allowing the arrogant Halutz -- blindly biased toward air power as a panacea -- to become chief of staff. The Winograd Commission confirmed what everyone already knew was the third mistake: Fully botching the war.
Olmert has other flaws, but his handling of the war was sufficient to disqualify him from the job. Not all of the blame can be placed on Olmert's shoulders, but enough of it can be. There was plenty to go around.
Ayalon said Monday: "I think many people understand that we are, in fact, not just voting on the future of the Labor Party but to a very large extent on the future leadership of the state of Israel." He was right about the importance of leadership -- or lack thereof -- as an issue in Israel today. It is much less likely that Labor will supply the next national leader.
Leadership is where it all starts. The entire Israeli public depends on it. Right, left or center, they all concur that the Olmert government cannot be characterized as posessing that characteristic. Supporters of Israel can rightly wonder why they should continue to back Israel financially and diplomatically when new management is so urgently required.
Even advocates for the Palestinians and a renewed political dialogue have a huge stake in this. If a renewed peace process is possible, they should not expect any serious progress so long as Olmert is in power.
Ayalon also suggested what seems like the most sensible strategy: Give Kadima the choice of replacing Olmert as its leader or losing Labor's 19 votes.
He has since backed off on this because of political considerations. Barak said he would press for early elections, probably within the coming year.
History suggests that holding off for early elections is unwise. Given that Olmert's necessary departure is long overdue, the day that he follows Peretz and Halutz out the door will complete the trifecta. Unfortunately for Israel, it bet on losing horses in the last election.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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