Dr. Aaron Lerner is co-founder of IMRA, Independent Media Review and Analysis, an Israel-based news organization which provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events relating to the Israeli-Arab conflict. imra@netvision.net.il
Mistake to launch final status talks without Palestinian compliance
By Dr. Aaron Lerner
July 27, 2007 Bookmark to del.icio.us
It doesn't matter if PM Ehud Olmert's plan to launch talks with the Palestinians is driven by ideology or a desire to stay in power. Either way, the idea of beginning final status talks without ever requiring Palestinian compliance is playing with fire.
Olmert wants to start by first focusing negotiations on various features of a Palestinian state while leaving the thornier issues of borders, Jerusalem and refugees for later.
It would appear that he plans to carry out a huge withdrawal from the West Bank within the framework of these talks before the difficult final status issues are resolved.
This means much more than forfeiting bargaining chips before the hardest negotiations begin.
Within the context of the Road Map, a sovereign Palestinian state can be created before agreement is reached on final status issues.
And there are critical operative differences between a Palestinian autonomy within Israel's envelope and a sovereign Palestinian state within "temporary" borders. No country openly challenges Israel's ultimate control of the envelope. A sovereign state would be a completely different story.
Add to this that the so-called Palestinian "moderates", including "moderate" Mahmoud Abbas, openly state that the choice of nonviolence is a question of efficacy rather propriety and final status talks without Palestinian compliance is a formula for disaster.
Withdrawal advocates argue that it will be easier for the PA to engage in compliance measures when they can show their public progress on the "diplomatic process". But the very same argument will be made to postpone compliance to after the formation of a sovereign state. After that compliance could be postponed to give the "moderate" leadership time to stabilize the new sovereign state.
And after that?
After that there will war -- if not earlier.
With the Palestinians exploiting all the advantages that never having to comply gives them.
In the absence of the Oslo experience, one might consider the leap of faith that Olmert's idea requires to be acceptable.
But after more than a decade of the Oslo fiasco, there is simply no justification for such "best case scenario" approaches.
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