By Dr. Aaron Lerner
February 1, 2008
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Egyptian control of the Gaza Strip would have a serious impact on Israel's security while significantly increasing the possibility of dangerous conflict between the Jewish State and its most powerful neighbor.
Third parties interested in raising tension between Israel and Egypt would use surrogates in Gaza to heat up the border to suck Israel into conflict.
One shudders to think of Israel's options should it find itself facing an ongoing security nightmare with Egyptian officials more angry about Israeli complaints than interested in actually solving the problem - as has been the experience with Sinai-Gaza smuggling activity.
Were the Egyptians to take responsibility for security in Gaza they would most certainly ultimately argue (with the world agreeing) that they need to deploy at least the same kind of equipment (tanks, attack helicopters, etc.), forces and military infrastructure (bases, fortified positions, etc.) as Israel did before it retreated.
The very same Egyptian army deployed to secure the Gaza Strip would be poised to strike Ashkelon, Ashdod and much of the rest of the country that lies within just a few kilometers with no natural or other significant barriers in the way.
Those suggesting that the current Egyptian regime, though it devotes literally billions of dollars preparing to ultimately attack Israel (or as they put it - an unnamed enemy located to the east of the Suez Canal), can be relied on to maintain its commitment to peace with the Jewish State cannot predict with any degree of certainty just how long either the regime or its commitment will last.
When one considers the myriad of social and economic challenges Egypt faces and will continue to face for many years to come as well as the growing strength of radical Egyptian groups as well as overall uncertainty regarding the future composition of the region, it would be sheer folly to base policy on the working assumption that circumstances would never develop in which Egyptian Army deployed in Gaza would unleash its power against Israel.
Even if they were not to join the fray, the very presence of the Egyptian Army in Gaza could have a serious impact on Israel's ability to allocate its limited military resources to effectively face a security challenge from other states.
Introducing Egypt to the Gaza Strip may bring quiet for a day, but policy makers have to think beyond the next headline. We have enough on our hands already without having to add to it the potential nightmares such a move could bring.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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