Dr. Aaron Lerner is co-founder of IMRA, Independent Media Review and Analysis, an Israel-based news organization which provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events relating to the Israeli-Arab conflict. imra@netvision.net.il
Olmert puts onus on AG - danger of rush to concessions?
By Dr. Aaron Lerner
May 9, 2008 Bookmark to del.icio.us
This evening Prime Minister Olmert announced that he would resign if AG Mazuz indicts him.
While it would appear that Mr. Olmert tends to shoot from the hip when it comes to decision making on national matters, when it comes decisions relating to his own fate he is extremely careful and calculating.
Why then did Olmert already forego the option of exploiting the apparent absence of a legally binding requirement that indicted prime ministers resign?
One reasonable explanation is that this move pus the onus on AG Mazuz to decide if he continues to serve as prime minister.
Should the time come - and indications are that it will come sooner than later - Mazuz won't be able to find solace in the possibility that Olmert would remain in office even if indicted and continue the so-called "peace process" .
Is it unfair to suggest that AG Mazuz may take into account the impact of his decision on diplomatic developments?
Consider this:
PM Sharon was given virtually no chance of regaining consciousness - but Attorney General Mazuz refused to act on this fact before the elections. It would have meant the very real possibility that Binyamin Netanyahu, as head of the Likud party, would have run in the elections as prime minister and Mr. Olmert and his Kadima party would run as members of the opposition.
Olmert would not have enjoyed the daily stream of PM photo-ops and he would have had to deal with a group of bickering "Volvo-less" (not ministers) Kadima party colleagues
None of the above is particularly earth shaking.
The bad news is that we can expect to see a rush by Olmert to make concessions to the Arabs in a bid to convince Mazuz that he qualifies for ultra-etrog status.
As is so frequently the case, how this plays out could very well depend on his Arab interlocutors.
On the one hand, they have a golden opportunity to cut a quick deal with a standing Israeli prime minister.
On the other hand, the temptation is great to squeeze Olmert even harder for concessions in light of his precarious position.
One thing is certain: the faster the investigation is concluded and a decision made regarding indictment the better.
Every day that passes without a decision is another opportunity for dangerous Israeli concessions. And while these concessions could be rescinded should elections be held fast enough, it could be at a cost.
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