Dr. Aaron Lerner is co-founder of IMRA, Independent Media Review and Analysis, an Israel-based news organization which provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events relating to the Israeli-Arab conflict. imra@netvision.net.il
Olmert celebrates that Hizbullah hasn't launched rockets. Yet.
By Dr. Aaron Lerner
July 11, 2008 Bookmark to del.icio.us
"It has been two years since a shell last fell on that area and this is thanks to the new deterring balance. Hizbullah is very cautious, and is careful not to disrupt this balance. It is the one that has lost [the Second Lebanon War], and everyone knows Hizbullah fears a confrontation with Israel. It's scared to death."
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in an interview to be published in the 11 July edition of the Nazareth-based Arabic language newspaper A-Sinara as reported by YNET.
The very same argument was used during the years leading up to the Second Lebanon War fiasco to justify the policy of essentially ignoring Hizbullah's rocket build up.
"Hizbullah is very cautious, and is careful not to disrupt this balance."
What "balance" is Hizbullah being "careful not to disrupt"?
"Hizbullah has doubled or tripled the amount of missiles it has in the last two years. These missiles can reach all parts of Israel."
Defense Minister Ehud Barak in a speech delivered at the Labor party offices in Tel Aviv 10 July
Oops.
Question: If Mr. Olmert genuinely believes that Hizbullah is "scared to death" of entering a confrontation with Israel then why didn't Israel force Hizbullah -- via threats of confrontation -- to stop smuggling in rockets for the past two years?
Israel intends to launch an international offensive against the Hizbullah threat at the Union for the Mediterranean Committee conference organized by French President Nicolas Sarkozy this Sunday in Paris.
Question: Why should anyone take the campaign seriously if the Prime Minister of Israel himself appears to be confident that Hizbullah's missiles represent no threat to the Jewish State since it is "scared to death"?
Answer: Don't expect consistency. Don't expect logic. Don't expect anything more than an ongoing series of rambling half baked ideas.
And that is what makes it so dangerous for the country for the Olmert team to remain in power.
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