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Isaac Herzog is a Knesset Member from the Labor Party. A lawyer by profession, he previously served as cabinet secretary in the Barak government.
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By Isaac Herzog
September 30, 2002
Originally published in the Jerusalem Post, September 21, 2002.
Ladies and gentlemen, it is time to be hysterical: medicine against nuclear bombs. Inoculations against lethal bacteria. Sites for the refugees of Ramat Gan and mass burial sites. For weeks we have seen a festival of hysteria and panic-mongering, and it is has not peaked yet. It is true we have to be ready for any trouble that comes, and that we have long lost our innocence as far as official announcements. But a little logic and sober thinking wouldn't hurt.
First of all, when contemplating the risks of a replay of the Gulf War Scud attacks against Israel, we should understand something about the launching area. Western Iraq is the only place from which missiles can be fired into Israel. Then it was unfamiliar, uncharted territory, without real intelligence coverage either on the level of photographs or basic intelligence.
Today, after more than a decade of operational lessons and thorough staff work the area is meticulously covered by intelligence. Every Iraqi move in the area is watched and detected first of all by the U.S. and British armies.
They are our real shield against an Iraqi offensive - a shield that is hard to penetrate both intelligence-wise and operationally.
Add to that Israel's improved intelligence capabilities in that area, which has been closely analyzed since then with impressive visual and electronic surveillance means, some of which have been revealed, in the areas of communications and air photography. Therefore it is likely that any suspicious movement would be detected and reported to the appropriate authorities in almost real time and with fair advance notice.
These officials will know which actions need to be taken to prevent an offensive operation, either by the U.S. and Britain or if necessary by Israel itself if it sees fit. One thing is clear: as far as Israel's defense deployment the security establishment has much better means than it did in the Gulf War and it is ready to meet an Iraqi offensive attempt.
And if we are talking about defense, we all remember the trauma of our lack of adequate defense against the Iraqi Scuds during the Gulf War and the dependence we developed upon the provisional Patriot missile system that arrived at the end of the war. But since then Israel and the U.S. have developed and deployed the Arrow missile defense system.
The Arrow system now grants Israel a security umbrella against even the most sophisticated missiles in the world. The system has proven itself in experiments and is considerably more effective than the Patriots it replaced.
It is important to remember that the Iraqi Scuds were neither new nor very accurate during the Gulf War, and it is a fact that the apparently small number of usable missiles that remain in the Iraqi arsenal have not been renewed or improved since then. The Arrow system was designed to operate against missiles with much better capabilities than the Scuds.
And at the most basic level Israel is much better prepared than it was in the Gulf War. First, from the psychological point of view, there is a complete understanding of all the systems relevant to the crisis at hand and an awareness of the needs that entails. Secondly, as part of the lessons of the Gulf War, the IDF established the Home Front Command, which formulated a clear organizational plan on all levels, from acquiring basic equipment for the civilians and the rescue and security forces, to preparing emergency sites and hospitals.
This command conducts widespread integrative activities and at this time is employing thousands of soldiers to prepare an adequate response to whatever may come. So it may be true that things are never perfect, but somebody is doing a lot and quietly for us to be able to rest assured.
So we can calm down and think soberly without even mentioning Israel's offensive air capability and the overall strategic balance in such a conflict that clearly tends in its favor.
We should still listen to the minister of defense and the chief of staff who state openly that Israel is prepared "better than ever" for the eventuality of being attacked. It would behoove us then, in response to the waves of hysteria we witness time and again, to hear clear and consistent voices from our entire leadership that would repeat the mantra: "Dear citizens: alertness, readiness and caution yes. Hysteria no."
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