By Avi Davis
May 7, 2002
Originally published on Jewseek.com.
'Keep your friends close and your enemies even closer' is an old proverb usefully employed in the business world, and applied more cynically in diplomatic circles. It was clearly on display last month as George W. Bush extended a welcome to Saudi Arabia's Prince Abdullah at the President's ranch in Crawford, Texas. On paper there is little reason the leader of United States should be cozying up to this corrupt autocrat. Not only were 15 out of 19 suicide bombers on September 11 Saudi nationals, but the Saudi royal family has contributed heavily to funds for the support of these killers' families. Not only does Saudi Arabian support for suicide bombing against Israeli targets continue, but the Saudi government has commissioned a national telethon to raise money for the dead Palestinians' families.
But all of this fails to appreciate the visit's historical antecedents. In attempting to mollify the Saudis, Bush is trundling an old road, first hacked through the desert by the British in the 1940s and since heavily trafficked by every Western democracy. Oil was the cause of Arab appeasement in the late 1930s as the storms of war approached and was decisive in forming British post war policy in its opposition to Zionist aspirations. The UN vote for the creation of the State of Israel, was, in fact, a triumph of morality over materialism as many western and South American nations risked severely straining ties with the Arab oil-producing world in the interests of a greater moral cause.
The U.S. today is faced with a far starker choice than in 1947. No longer is it materialism at issue, but survival. The Arab world, seething with resentment toward the U.S. for its support of Israel has once again erupted in a frenzy of Jew hatred. In Europe, this pressure, combining with latent anti-Semitism, is being bonded into a powerful narcotic used to deaden sensitivities to terrorism. It has all but succeeded in numbing Europe to the threat of a homegrown Islamic fundamentalism militating within its own borders.
For the United States this is a grave situation. Without a display of firm moral resolve, it risks isolation in a world given over to obscurantism and appeasement. It certainly cannot rely on the showmanship of regressive regimes to build support for a Middle East policy that promotes peace.
Such a regime is Saudi Arabia. While boasting of its reputation as a 'moderate regime,' the House of Saud has never been a sponsor or promoter of peace in the Middle East. During the Camp David summit in the summer of 2000 it applied no pressure on Yasser Arafat to agree or even counter to Ehud Barak's overly generous proposals. Instead, it supported the Palestinians' additional claim of a right to return, a deal it clearly understood no Israeli government could accept. Its much vaunted peace plan is similarly handicapped, offering ambiguous promises of normalization in exchange for a withdrawal while appending the same demand for the right of return.
When reviewing these facts, commentators point to a threatened oil embargo - the ever-present genie who bangs relentlessly against the walls of his bottle. They seem unaware that removing the cork on this bottle could actually be far more hazardous to Saudis than to Americans. Neither Saudi Arabia nor OPEC can afford an oil embargo - now or in the near future. Saudi policy makers know, as U.S. policy makers should, that price stability is in everyone's interests. The Saudis rely on this price stability to control their own supply; to upset the equilibrium could quickly set them on the road to penury. In addition, the U.S., Japan, and Germany have strategic oil reserves totaling 1.2 billion barrels. According to the Wall Street Journal's Susan Lee, these alone "could make up over 50% of the Saudi shortfall." "The worst case scenario," she writes, "would generate a painfully tight oil market for three to six months ... not a fatal hit to the U.S. economy."
The President, perhaps understanding this, is employing a carefully calibrated strategy to negotiate a path among the tricksters and conmen of a labyrinthine Arab casbah. But as he may one day painfully learn, the snake that is charmed is not always a charming snake. Already once bitten, the U.S. has far more worthy allies to cultivate among the denizens of a treacherous and corrupt region of the world than the oil barons of Saudi Arabia.
Views expressed by the author do not
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