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Shalom Freedman is an American-born writer on Jewish subjects who has lived and worked in Israel for many years. His book, , was recently been published by Urim Books.
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By Shalom Freedman
September 30, 2003
The recent report on the Jewish population of the United States indicated the community's continuing decline in size. The number of Jews in the United States is now listed at 5.2 million. Assimilation and intermarriage are still the predominant trend, and there is no sign that these processes will be reversed. There is also a less than replacement fertility rate; an increasing phenomena of late- or no marriage; and on the whole an aging Jewish population. The one counter trend that is encouraging is the relatively large percentage of Jewish young people now receiving day school educations. This figure is put at twenty-nine percent.
The decline in America's Jewish population, and even more markedly as percentage of the total population, raises the question of the future strength and support of the community for Israel.
In Israel, the Jewish population continues to grow, albeit at a much smaller pace than in the past. There are signs that negative demographic phenomena such as late- and no marriage; lower fertility rates; and even a higher degree of intermarriage (though still insignificant in comparison to what it is in Diaspora communities) are also increasing here.
Most importantly, the Arab birthrate within Israel is at least two and one half times the Jewish one, and the Arab minority is growing as a percentage of the total population. The increased number of foreign workers, and the large number of non-Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union, help accelerate the decline of the Jewish majority. As of September 2003, Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics put the percentage of Jews in the country as seventy-seven, which is a decline from that of previous years.
Israel, if it wishes to remain a Jewish state and a democracy, must guarantee itself a large Jewish majority. Today, this majority is increasingly threatened. It is also important to keep in mind that one plan for the destruction of Israel, shared by both Arabs and the small number of Jews hostile to the state, is to destroy it from within demographically. The post-Zionist vision of the Israel which is advertised as a 'state of all its citizens' in fact translates into one in which an Arab majority rules and integrates within the wider Arab world. The end of Israel as a Jewish state 'by democratic means' is a plan currently championed by, among others, Haim Negbi, Meron Benvenisti, Baruch Kimmerling and Ilan Pappe. And support for this position is growing as despair over finding a two-state solution increases.
Historically, the answer to the problem in Israel would be Aliyah. But the declining, aging, and prosperous populations in the Diaspora do not seem real candidates for this now. And the kinds of numbers involved suggest that even if an idealistic minority does make Aliyah, this will not contend with the major trends. Reversing the decline in the birthrate is something which has been state-subsidized in a number of European states, and never worked. It is doubtful that it would work in Israel either.
There are other possibilities, among them the conversion of large, relatively poor populations which are in some way affiliated to, or sympathetic to the Jews, and would wish to come to Israel. There is the possibility of making the kind of peace agreement which would cede Israel's Arabs to an Arab state, and thus greatly reduce pressure on Israel as democratic and Jewish state. Another possibility is the return of more Jews back to Jewish religious life, a step that would no doubt lead to higher birthrates. This, however, seems a highly unlikely possibility.
Numbers are of course not everything. And the Jewish community in Israel, at nearly ten times the size of the Jewish community at the state's founding, is certainly large enough to be a viable and productive community. In some ways, Israel can already be thought of as the most powerful Jewish community that has ever existed. Even without the demographic threat from its minority, Israel has a large enough Jewish population to sustain itself.
Perhaps the only way of dealing with Israel's demographic threat is a return to negotiations for a two-state solution, in which the Arabs within the two-state area have citizenship in the Arab state, and the Jews within the area are part of the Jewish state.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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