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By Dr. Rand H. Fishbein
December 21, 2003
Originally published by the Jerusalem Post on December 11, 2003.
In a decision sure to displease many in Israel's military and business communities, the government of Ariel Sharon is set to adopt a budget for 2004 that would kill production of Israel's only domestically produced tank.
Under a plan proposed by the Ministry of Defense, the Merkava program would be phased out due to a lack of funds and pressure from the Finance Ministry to cut costs. The only hope for the tank is an 11th-hour reprieve from the prime minister, who must find the money to keep the production lines going.
Also facing Sharon is a recommendation to cut the number of tanks in Israel's arsenal by more than half. Currently, the country fields about 3,900 armored vehicles. This is less than 50 percent of those fielded by Israel's enemies.
"This is the hour of reckoning for the Merkava program," said Brig.-Gen. (res.) Shlomo Pazzy, the former head of planning in the IDF Logistics Branch. "Failure to win government backing for continued production will be a severe blow not only to the security of our nation, but to our already weakened industrial base as well."
For nearly 25 years, the Merkava main battle tank has been an integral part of the country's defense strategy. Now in its fourth generation, the Merkava Mk 4 boasts some of the most advanced targeting, propulsion and protective armor systems in the world. Military experts consider it to be equal to, or better than, its European or American rivals.
However, this may not be enough to save a program which some in the government have branded as unnecessary, wasteful and unaffordable during these times of fiscal austerity.
The fight over the Merkava goes to the heart of what Israeli experts see as the current and emerging threats to the country's security. Opponents argue that Baghdad's defeat by U.S.-led coalition forces has effectively neutralized any threat along the once formidable Iraqi front. Yet events in Iraq remain unsettled, and it is unclear what the future holds. The coalition still has not uncovered the enormous stocks of unconventional weapons Saddam Hussein's army is believed to have had in its possession. If disbursed to other confrontation states and used in a surprise attack they could quickly turn the balance of power against Israel.
At the same time, Israel's current and potential enemies continue to build up their armor arsenals, among them Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Today, these countries field over 8,700 tanks among them. Yet, it is Egypt's force which stands out as the most menacing.
Over the last dozen years Hosni Mubarak has embarked upon a massive upgrade of Egypt's tank fleet, acquiring more than 880 M1A1 tanks. The vehicles are provided to Egypt as kits and assembled in a billion-dollar plant built by the U.S. just outside Cairo.
Recently, the U.S. government has given the go-ahead for the upgrading of some Egyptian tanks to the more potent M1A2 configuration. With no country threatening its borders, it is only Israel that looms as the likely target of the Egyptian build-up.
Earlier this month Washington approved the sale of new, more lethal 120mm. armor-piercing rounds to Egypt for its M1 tanks. The deal, worth $54 million, is for 10,040 non-standard APFSDS-T shells.
Though its economy is in shambles, Egypt's general staff has made no secret of its desire to achieve military parity with the Jewish state and a regional power projection capability. Towards that end, Cairo has spared no effort to acquire a host of new and more powerful weapons systems, including surface-to-surface missiles with WMD capability, fighter aircraft, attack helicopters, naval vessels and, of course, tanks.
The U.S. bears a good deal of responsibility for the arms race gripping the region. The increase in sales of ever more lethal armaments to Israel's potential adversaries has imposed a severe economic hardship on Jerusalem as it tries to maintain an adequate defensive posture.
The U.S. has done little to check Egypt's rearmament excesses. In report after report to Congress in advance of new arms sales, the Pentagon repeats a familiar refrain: "The proposed sale of this equipment and support will not affect the basic military balance in the region."
However, many defense experts in both Israel and the U.S. strongly disagree with this assessment. In recent years they have appealed to Congress not to sell satellite-guided Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) bombs, Apache helicopters and Phalanx missiles to the Mubarak government, weapons which only enhance Egypt's offensive capability.
The Merkava was specially designed by the IDF in the 1970s to permit offensive armor operations in all environments, from the rugged terrain of the Golan Heights, to the deserts of the Sinai Peninsula and the congested urban centers of the West Bank and Gaza.
It has seen action in every military campaign of the last 20 years and is the combat weapon of choice for IDF commanders confronting organized terrorist resistance in the Palestinian-controlled territories.
More importantly, no other system affords soldiers better protection from small-arms attack or roadside bombs.
Some of the Merkava's many innovations are improved reactive armor, a 120mm. smooth-bore gun capable of firing guided munitions, an enhanced gun stabilization system, state-of-the-art night-fighting and fire-control sensors, a positive pressure crew compartment that allows the vehicle to fight in a biological or chemical environment, and even air conditioning. The tank is also designed for rear entry, enabling it to double as an infantry transporter.
Still, the Sharon government is being pressed by some of the country's business interests to consider adopting the American-made M1 Abrams tank as a replacement for the Merkava. Rumors are circulating that the U.S. has offered to provide Israel with used Abrams tanks withdrawn from the Iraqi theater of operations.
Some military experts have expressed their strong opposition to this suggestion. They note that not only would the tanks require significant modification to make them compatible with Israeli equipment and standards, but they also would require the establishment of an entirely new maintenance and logistics base to handle the system.
For a country already suffering a severe revenue shortfall and sharp cutbacks in military spending, assuming yet another financial burden makes little sense. Last month the Israeli government decided not to buy the new American-made F-22 combat aircraft for many of these same reasons.
The U.S. no longer maintains an assembly line for new M1 tanks. In the highly unlikely event the line were to be restarted, the unit cost of an M1 would probably be in excess of its original $9 million cost. This is millions more than the cost of a comparable Merkava.
Relying on spare parts from an overseas supplier, even the U.S., reduces Israel's military flexibility and control in wartime and can place great strains on an all-important strategic relationship.
There is little question that a decision to end the Merkava program would have devastating consequences for Israel's defense-industry base. It is a sector already reeling from massive layoffs and major cutbacks in government procurement.
Canceling the program would pose serious economic harm to over 220 subcomponent suppliers in Israel and result in the loss of an estimated 5,000 to 10,000 jobs. Many of these belong to engineers, scientists and skilled factory workers.
Industry watchers fear that the end of the Merkava program would only accelerate the overseas migration of Israel's intellectual capital and bring ruin to a key component of the country's technological base. It also could have a negative effect on military readiness, weakening its deterrent posture and eroding yet another vital element of military self-sufficiency.
The effects of a shutdown would also be felt in the U.S. where nearly 22% of the Merkava's content is fabricated. General Dynamics Land Systems, the largest U.S.-based Merkava contractor, is slated to produce 400 engines for the tank at a cost of just under $200m. A cancellation of the contract would require Israel to forfeit 90% of this amount in compensation.
It is a fact little appreciated among government policymakers that Israel's civilian technology sector relies heavily upon military research and development for advances in everything from computer electronics and software design to materials engineering and propulsion systems.
Merkava components and technologies account for over $200m. in annual export sales by Israel. This amount does not include the $800m. Israel is to receive for the upgrade of 170 Turkish M60A1 tanks and the millions more it expects from future Merkava sales. All of this would be lost if the Merkava is cancelled.
Without the technology spawned by the Merkava, Israel would find itself quickly outpaced by other advanced industrial nations. According to the former Project Manager for the Merkava, Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ze'ev Bar-Gil, "Israel will lose its status as one of the leaders of the world in tank technology and will, therefore, lose projects of co-development and co-production of armored systems with other nations."
This means that Israel will have sacrificed its world-class status as a leader in tank technology to the whims of budgetary expediency. The long-term cost to the country's economy and security would be incalculable.
Since the Merkava's inception in the 1970s, Israel has invested approximately $6.5 billion in the program. Over this period, the tank has served as a test-bed for innovations in not only land combat, but air combat as well. Many of the technologies it has spawned have found their way into the cockpits of IAF fighter jets. These include some of the most advanced systems for battle management, multiple target acquisition, platform survivability, the deployment of active and passive counter-measures, command and control, and situational awareness.
For many in Israel, the survival of the Merkava is integral to the maintenance of Israel's qualitative military edge. Terminate the Merkava and the nation loses an essential part of its military readiness. Eliminate its tank industrial base and Israel's ability to repair vehicles damaged in combat quickly and effectively is weakened.
Neither Israel's military nor its defense industries can afford to have the country's political leaders dally on the question of the Merkava's future. It takes approximately 40 months to field a Merkava tank from the day the first steel is cut and the first welds are drawn.
Presently, the Defense Ministry has subcomponents for the Merkava on order sufficient for production roll-out through 2007. According to industry officials, new contracts must be signed now to ensure the continuity of production past 2007.
Even if the government decides to continue the Merkava program, the current production rate already is so low that new tanks will need to be in service for upwards of 80 years before they would be slated for replacement. This calculation assumes no change in the size of Israel's existing tank fleet.
Increasingly, the wars of the future will be fought on a "come as you are" basis. This will leave no time for Israel to ramp up production for a conflict that may be just over the horizon.
The judgment of history is clear on this point. A country which disarms in the face of mounting hostilities will not deter aggression, but rather, will invite it.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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