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Moshe Dann , a former asst. professor of History (CUNY), is a writer and journalist living in Jerusalem.
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By Moshe Dann
June 3, 2004
Had Joshua listened to a "demographic" argument the Jewish people would never have entered and conquered Eretz Yisrael.
I'm sure that Moses Montifore, the Rothschild and DeHirsch families, and religious Zionists who helped build Eretz Yisrael in the 19th century were told by "demographers" that they were wasting their money. "Palestine," of course, did not exist then.
The pioneers who came to build this country during the 20s and 30s didn't have "demographics" on their side either. Nor did those who survived the Arab war of extermination in 1948, who fought for and established the State of Israel.
From the "demographic" point of view Jewish history would never have happened. That's because "demographics" only tells you what is and projects what might be - not what will be. The alternative is a vision and commitment to the right of the Jewish people to Eretz Yisrael.
The "demographic" argument for unilateral withdrawal from Yehuda, Shomron and Gaza (YESHA), and even some Israeli Arab towns is basically this: the Arab population is increasing rapidly; sooner or later they will outnumber the Jews: it's a "time-bomb" that can and must be defused. In order to preserve both the democratic and Zionist-Jewish character of the State of Israel and retain a large majority of Jews, Israel should give up land, create a Palestinian state and divest itself (as much as possible) of and separate from Arab populations.
Eventually and hopefully, the Arabs will accept our presence, albeit temporarily, even though terrorism and incitement will no doubt continue. We will have relative safety, however, behind a protective fence and we will have "consensus."
What makes this policy so pernicious is its basic fallacy: the existential problem of Israel itself is ignored. Their cry for a safe place is so desperate that they fail to consider the consequences: an enemy strengthened.
Advocates of unilateral withdrawal admit that there won't be peace, but "conflict management" (whatever that means). They "guarantee" that Arabs on the other side of a separation barrier will not be able to work in Israel and will emigrate.
But what if it doesn't work the way they anticipate? What if, instead (and more likely) Israel continues to allow "Palestinians" to work in Israel? In fact, PM Sharon recently doubled the number of work permits of Gaza residents from 40 to 80,000. Some "disengagement!"
What if millions of Arabs from the "refugee camps" in Lebanon, Syria and Jordan flood into "the West Bank?" Think about the explosive potential of those demographics!
What if/when Palestinian terrorism explodes on an even larger scale, this time aided by more deadly weapons and troops from foreign countries?
There are also internal Israeli issues in dealing with the dramatic leap in its Arab population such as: the inept policy of supporting Bedouin families with multiple wives and many children - in violation of Israeli law; birthrates among Jews are about half of those among Arabs; only in the last decade since Oslo, more than 240,000 Palestinians have entered Israel via legal and illegal marriages and "family reunifications;" another 100,000 have moved to east Jerusalem.
If the demographic argument is applied to the Galilee, where more than half the population is Arab ("Palestinian") and violent Arab towns like Umm el-Fahm increasingly support terrorism, and parts of the Negev which are exclusively Bedouin, should Israel leave?
Unilateral withdrawal and the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank may postpone but won't solve Israel's "demographic problem." It will not solve the Palestinian problem, since there will be no "justice for Palestinians" until Israel itself is destroyed. Only then will the perpetual "victims of Israeli aggression" be vindicated.
The "demographic" argument is but a thinly veiled support for unilateral, forcible "transfer" of Jews (only) from their homes (supposedly in order to preserve an ethical ideal) and the creation of a terror-based Palestinian state.
The only separation and transfer of populations that makes sense is in the context of a regional solution in which Arab countries with "refugee camps" (and others) embrace their brothers and sisters as citizens. Israel cannot and should not be expected to bear the burden of a problem not of its making and that will lead to its self-destruction.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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