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Elliot Chodoff is a political and military analyst, and a founder of Hamartzim Educational Services. Chodoff's analysis of the Mideast "situation" is available through the .
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By Elliot Chodoff
July 19, 2004
Reprinted with permission from the (free) Mideast: On Target newsletter.
As the Palestinian Authority in Gaza goes through the throes of what may be terminal disintegration, players and spectators alike are trying to envision the day after, and assess the possible consequences. While much of what has happened over the past two days has been predictable, both internal and external forces' affects on events put forecasting the outcome in the league of tea leaf reading.
In recent years, two forces in Gaza have attempted to promote chaos there for their own, disparate ends: Yasser Arafat and Hamas. Arafat has hoped that a descent into chaos, coupled with sharp Israeli responses to his orchestrated terrorist attacks, would compel the international community to intervene physically in the conflict. The deployment of a multinational force would provide Arafat with additional cover for his operations against Israel and his own domestic opponents, deter Israeli pre-emptive and responsive operations against terrorism, and virtually guarantee further friction between Israel and the international community.
If the recent ICJ ruling is an example of world opinion (to be seen in the upcoming UN vote on the subject) Palestinian terrorists have the basic right to kill Israelis, but Israel has no right to defend itself against them. If this were the mandate given to an international force in Gaza, it is not difficult to imagine the IDF engaging that force in combat sooner or later. It would be the greatest show in the Middle East and Arafat would provide the drinks and popcorn.
Hamas also promotes chaos through violence for its own ends, but not through an international agent. Seen as an honest religious organization by many on the Palestinian street, Hamas provides both financial and spiritual stability to a population that has suffered terribly in the past four years of warfare. The corrupt Palestinian Authority has contributed more than its share to the destitution of the population, and the rest was provided by Hamas itself, through murderous terrorist attacks that elicited Israeli military action in response. Surrounded by chaos, many flocked to Hamas, with its promise of relief in this world and the next.
Interestingly enough, the current shock to the Palestinian Authority comes from a third party: the young guard of Arafat's Fatah movement who see themselves being outflanked by their corrupt elders on the one hand and by clean-hands Hamas on the other. (Mohammad Dahlan, on-again off-again strong man of one of the security factions, is a likely suspect as the catalyst behind the timing and initial actions. Ghazi Jabali, the Gaza police chief kidnapped and released on Friday, is a longtime bitter enemy.)
There is little question that the imminent Israeli withdrawal from Gaza has had its effect as well, as the showdown for who rules the area approaches. With Israel out of the immediate picture, the terrorist organizations are likely to turn their guns on each other as they vie for power over the overcrowded cities and refugee camps, allowing order to rule only when it is their own. We are also likely to see a frantic increase in attempts at spectacular terrorist attacks, as these always play well on the Palestinian street and gain support for those who perpetrate them. The battle for the control of Gaza has just begun; we don't expect to see a conclusion any time soon.
Views expressed by the author do not
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