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Elliot Chodoff is a political and military analyst, and a founder of Hamartzim Educational Services. Chodoff's analysis of the Mideast "situation" is available through the .
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By Elliot Chodoff
August 2, 2004
Reprinted with permission from the (free) Mideast: On Target newsletter.
In a test largely ignored by the U.S. media, the Israeli designed and produced Arrow anti-ballistic missile (ABM) system intercepted and destroyed a test missile off the coast of California. The interception, while the 12th operational test of the system, was the first to actually down a missile meant to simulate a Scud of the type in the Syrian arsenal.
The ramifications of the successful launch are far-reaching. Although the immediate threat of Iraqi ballistic missiles, 39 of which hit Israel during the 1991 Gulf War, has been removed by the American destruction of Saddam Hussein's regime, Syria and Iran maintain sizeable ballistic missile arsenals and are on an ongoing expansion and upgrade program. Further, the Syrians have stocks of chemical weapons and the Iranians are attempting to achieve nuclear capability. None of this bodes well for Israel.
During the 1991 Gulf War, Israel's only answer to a potential Iraqi use of chemical warheads on its Scuds was a combination of enhanced civil defense coupled with the threat of massive retaliation. The strategy was simple: minimize the lethal effect of an attack and threaten to exact a price far beyond its value. Whether or not this strategy was the decisive factor in deterring Saddam from using chemicals in that war remains a debatable point, but in the end, all 39 Scuds were armed with conventional warheads.
In an attempt to enhance the deterrent effect of the above strategy, Israel also deployed a number of American Patriot anti-missile batteries. The move was cosmetic at best, as the Patriots were generally ineffective in protecting major population centers from Scud attacks. At worst, their deployment could actually have been detrimental, as interception of a chemical-armed Scud might actually have distributed the gas more effectively than the warhead's capability. In any event, the Patriots boosted morale but had little, if any, effect.
The Arrow is another story altogether. For the first time in its history, Israel has the proven capability to intercept enemy ballistic missiles in flight at a range that negates the effects of any warheads they may carry. For the Syrians and Iranians, the cost-benefit equation has shifted heavily against the attempted use of weapons of mass destruction. Even if they are willing to accept disproportionate punishment in retaliation for heavy damage inflicted on Israel, they must now face the reality that their attack will be intercepted and rendered ineffective, while they still must face Israeli retaliation as if the attack had succeeded.
The world has become just a little more complicated for those who seek to attack Israel.
Views expressed by the author do not
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