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By Micah D. Halpern
September 26, 2004
Just because something is obvious, it doesn't mean that it's simple. And specifically because it isn't simple, the obvious solution is seldom the one used to solve the big problems.
Here's a case in point: Kassam rockets are routinely fired by Palestinians at Israelis living in towns and communities that abut the Gaza Strip. The most frequent target is the development town of Sderot. Since January 2004, over 100
Kassam missiles have hit this unlucky desert town.
Now, according to the problem solvers, hope is on the way.
The Israeli army and Israeli police have a new weapon in their arsenal to protect the citizens of Sderot. It's called Maamin and it's an "early warning announcement system," developed by Rafael the Israeli Armament Development Authority.
The technology, which was originally developed to spot snipers, calculates from where and when a missile will hit. The calculation takes a single second. It's amazing technology.
How will it work? We are told that a Kassam rocket's average flight time from within Palestinian Gaza to Sderot is 30 seconds. The system, which hooks up to public address speakers, will send out a message alerting the citizens of Sderot that a missile is on the way. They will have 15-20 seconds to respond.
Sounds like pretty good advance notice. Or is it?
Does having 15-20 seconds of advance warning actually help a private citizen? For the military, 15-20 seconds should be enough notice. But how quickly can you run for cover ? and how do you know where to run? If you can make it to a bomb shelter -- that's great. And people who are trying to lead normal lives and maintain normal lifestyles aren't usually that close to a bomb shelter? Having the extra 15 seconds time to take cover does not solve the problem. What it does, is exacerbate the problem by increasing the period of panic and terror by those same 15 seconds.
Fortunately, given the type of explosive head fitted on the Kassam and even on the newer Nasser 3, a longer range and larger Kassam-type missile warhead, only a direct hit is dangerous. These missiles cause little reverberating collateral damage, so most people will always be safe. Unless you're unfortunate enough to be the person who chose to hide behind the left side of the car, rather than the right, which is just where the hit fell.
Let's go back a bit and re-examine the problem: missiles are being lobbed at Israeli citizens. Now for the solution: a system that allows for the determination of where a rocket will land and from where it was fired.
Isn't it obvious?
The reality is that unless you can get to the terrorists before, during, or immediately after an attack you're not solving the problem -- you're accommodating the problem. This early warning system is fascinating, it's unique, it's ingenious, but it's not a solution.
The solution is to use the technology for the more difficult task of eliminating the source of the missiles, something the technology is perfectly capable of doing. Within seconds the army should be able to counter attack the point and all the moving points around the launch-site -- whether they are launching from jeeps or platforms, before they ride off in SUVs or horse drawn carriages. It's just like triangulating on the terrorist sniper. It's something the Israelis are hesitant to do now.
The Israeli Army and Rafael are saying that hitting the terrorists who shoot the missiles comes next. Next?!
There is of course another solution. The Palestinians could stop shooting. Palestinian leaders could take action to prevent their citizens from firing Kassam, or any, missiles at Israelis.
It's an obvious solution. But will it be done?
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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