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Dr. Aaron Lerner is co-founder of , Independent Media Review and Analysis, an Israel-based news organization which provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events relating to the Israeli-Arab conflict.
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By Dr. Aaron Lerner
October 1, 2004
With Prime Minister Ariel Sharon insisting that nothing will stop him from retreating, "Days of Penitence", the IDF operation just launched in response to the escalating successful Palestinian rocket attacks against Sderot, can be expected to have little if no long term impact.
Minister of Justice Yosef Lapid (Shinui) went so far as to suggest at the emergency Security Cabinet meeting tonight that Israel opt to reinforce the roofs in Sderot and drop the whole plan.
Clear out weapons? Only until the Palestinians are re-stocked. And if Israel implements the retreat plan, that should be child's play.
Just last week the United States joined the rest of the "Quartet" to issue a statement that "The Quartet reiterates that a withdrawal from Gaza should be full and complete."
What stops the flow of weapons from Egypt after a "full and complete" withdrawal?
And what about arms shipment to Gaza air and sea ports after a "full and complete" withdrawal?
To be a deterrent, "Days of Penitence" has to be perceived as a model for future operations if the Palestinians renew their attacks -- not as Israel's "last hurrah" before retreating.
But the Palestinians know full well that post-retreat conditions -- both on the ground and on the diplomatic front -- would make an operation such as "Days of Penitence" next to impossible.
Today "Days of Penitence" is an operation taking place within Israel's envelope -- retreat fundamentally changes that.
Post retreat Gaza would be a considerably more hostile environment, with Palestinian forces armed with better weapons, improved training and better command and control.
But that's not the half of it. The "Days of Penitence" operation may not win Israel many friends at the UN but the diplomatic fallout is miniscule as compared to what Israel could face in a post retreat environment with foreign human shield "observers/advisors" on the ground and Gaza enjoying some form of international status as a nascent sovereign state.
Reinforced roofs won't protect children playing in the yards of Sderot, nor will a short lived operation if it is followed by retreat.
Such notions may make sense when considered within the Sharon team's painfully short planning horizon -- but Israel simply cannot afford to think only up to the camera angles for the photo-op covering the last Israeli leaving Gaza.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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