Dr. Aaron Lerner is co-founder of IMRA, Independent Media Review and Analysis, an Israel-based news organization which provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events relating to the Israeli-Arab conflict. imra@netvision.net.il
Does Netanyahu underestimate his standing?
By Dr. Aaron Lerner
October 26, 2004
Is finance minister Binyamin Netanyahu underestimating his standing?
At this point Netanyahu strongly believes that a national referendum is critical for national unity but declines to give prime minister Ariel Sharon an ultimatum linking his vote in favor of the plan to a commitment that a national referendum be held.
Netanyahu's position is explained as reflecting his refusal to jeopardize his chances of becoming prime minister (or as cynics put it, his devotion to his holy trinity - "me, myself and I").
Yet at the same time, Netanyahu believes that the continued recovery of the economy is inexorably linked to his continuing as treasury minister -- and Netanyahu is confident that the business community shares this assessment.
If Netanyahu were to present Sharon with an ultimatum, the business community -- which includes the wealthy supporters of the Left -- would find themselves pressing Sharon (and their financial benefactors in the Left) to accept a referendum in order to protect their own financial interests (that are served by Netanyahu remaining in his cabinet position).
Ironically, if Netanyahu's ego was truly as large as his detractors claim it is, he would not hesitate to issue the ultimatum -- confident that the outcome would be a win-win: being able to vote in favor of the plan in the Knesset to curry favor with disengagement supporters while taking credit for the national referendum that disengagement opponents so desperately seek.
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