Dr. Aaron Lerner is co-founder of IMRA, Independent Media Review and Analysis, an Israel-based news organization which provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events relating to the Israeli-Arab conflict. imra@netvision.net.il
The "rebel" Likud bunnies scurry back to their holes
By Dr. Aaron Lerner
October 31, 2004
Israeli ministers Livnat and Katz have rushed to justify their decisions to put their desire to retain their ministerial portfolios over what they themselves consider to be critical national interests by explaining that enabling legislation for a national referendum cannot pass the Knesset.
It is important to note that the nose counts cited to justify this assessment assume that none of those who currently oppose national referendum could be convinced to change their minds.
It should be noted that opposition to the disengagement plan is extremely strong among ultra-orthodox voters, thus putting pressure on the decision makers in these parties to seek a compromise that would allow their MKs to vote in favor of national referendum legislation.
The ultra-orthodox parties oppose national referendum on disengagement out of concern that it sets a precedent for national referendums that may one day be applied to such hot issues as army deferments for Yeshiva students.
This concern can be addressed by making it clear in the enabling legislation that the framework of national referendum is limited in application to decisions relating to territory/sovereignty.
There are some MKs in the national camp who oppose a national referendum which does not require a special majority out of concern that this will set a precedent of accepting a simple majority for future referendums. While their interest in requiring a special majority for important decisions is certainly justifiable, the dynamics today that prevent requiring a special majority in the case of disengagement can be expected to be present also if additional withdrawals are brought to national referendum in the future.
While some of these MKs may certainly voice their opposition before the vote, it is extremely unlikely that they would be willing to cast a determining vote against enabling legislation.
Likud MKs who now oppose a national referendum almost all do it out of loyalty to Prime Minister Sharon. If he supports a referendum they will follow suit, Shinui's about face on the national referendum is also far from set in stone. Again, if Ariel Sharon were to explain that now that it has been established by the special Likud committee that a referendum can be carried out without delaying implementation of the plan that he has decided that for the sake of unity to support a national referendum, Shinui can be expected to also support the enabling legislation.
Whether or not a national referendum takes place has nothing to do with the current Knesset nose count on enabling legislation and everything to do with the intestinal fortitude of key ministers who only recently insisted on a national referendum.
Unfortunately, as the nervous ministers scurry back into their "bunny holes" it appears that Mr. Sharon may be correct in his assessment that there is no key Likud player willing to put his or her concern for the nation ahead of their own careers.
Treasury Minister Netanyahu will be returning from the United States shortly. Most of the press expects him to also find a way back to his warren.
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