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Dr. Aaron Lerner is co-founder of , Independent Media Review and Analysis, an Israel-based news organization which provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events relating to the Israeli-Arab conflict.
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By Dr. Aaron Lerner
November 5, 2004
Now that the American elections are behind us the time has come for Israel to give the man who will continue to lead the free world for another four years the credit that he deserves -- and tell him the truth.
Unfortunately, it seems that ever since 9/11 our leaders here in Israel have been so afraid that George Bush will finally take the advice of Tony Blair and others and feed us to the wolves in order to placate the Arabs that they simply haven't been straight with him.
And the truth is that a "sovereign Palestinian state living next to Israel in peace" is a contradiction in terms.
Under some versions of the Oslo fantasy, democratic nation-building within the Palestinian autonomy during the interim period was to lead to the formation of such a peace-loving state.
That's "some versions" -- because Prime Minister Yitzchak Rabin, who felt that a sovereign Palestinian state would be a mistake, said he wanted Oslo to lead to an enhanced autonomy.
But instead of using the Oslo era for peaceful democratic nation-building, the Palestinian leadership -- in particular the leadership imported from Tunis -- put all of its efforts into poisoning the minds of the Palestinian public, educating for hate and a rejection of Israel's very right to exist as they introduced heavy handed corruption, violence and terror.
The damage has been done. And it can't be repaired with a photo opportunity. There are no shortcuts.
If regional stability is a necessary condition for any program of Palestinian nation-building, a rush to sovereignty is simply out of the question.
For the time being, the best possible expression of Palestinian freedom and democracy is via autonomy. Autonomy that provides freedom and democratic self-rule but not the freedom of a sovereign state to engage in actions that may threaten its neighbors.
And what of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan to retreat from the Gaza Strip and northern Samaria to create a
Palestinian terror state on the Mediterranean?
It doesn't matter now if Sharon's full court press to get Knesset approval of his disengagement plan before the American elections was solely at the prime minister's own initiative or the implementation of Karl Rove's marching orders to give his candidate a last minute boost. With the elections over, it is not too late to put the retreat genie back in the bottle.
Yes, Sharon promised Bush he was determined to implement the retreat -- but he didn't promise to stifle the democratic process. And if the People of Israel reject retreat at the ballot box, Mr. Bush would be the last to challenge their right to democratically determine their nation's fate.
Will Minister Binyamin Netanyahu stick to his guns and press next week for a referendum on retreat?
Israeli ministers Livnat and Katz have rushed to justify their decisions to put their desire to retain their ministerial portfolios over what they themselves consider to be critical national interests by explaining that enabling legislation for a national referendum cannot pass the Knesset.
It is important to note that the nose counts cited to justify this assessment assume that none of those who currently oppose national referendum could be convinced to change their minds.
The ultra-orthodox parties oppose disengagement but they also oppose a national referendum on disengagement out of concern that it sets a precedent for national referendums that may one day be applied to such hot issues as army deferments for Yeshiva students. This concern can be addressed by making it clear in the enabling legislation that the framework of national
referendum is limited in application to decisions relating to territory or sovereignty.
There are some MKs in the national camp who oppose a national referendum which does not require a special majority out of concern that this will set a precedent of accepting a simple majority for future referendums. While their interest in requiring a special majority for important decisions is certainly justifiable, the dynamics today that prevent requiring a special majority in the case of disengagement can be expected to be present also if additional withdrawals are brought to national referendum in the future.
While some of these MKs may certainly voice their opposition before the vote, it is extremely unlikely that they would be willing to cast a determining vote against enabling legislation.
Likud MKs who now oppose a national referendum almost all do it out of loyalty to Prime Minister Sharon. If he supports a referendum they will follow suit.
Shinui's about face on the national referendum is also far from set in stone. Again, if Sharon were to explain that now that it has been established by the special Likud committee that a referendum can be carried out without delaying implementation of the plan that he has decided that for the sake of unity etc. to support a national referendum Shinui can be expected to also support the enabling legislation.
Whether or not a national referendum takes place has nothing to do with the current Knesset nose count on enabling legislation and everything to do with the intestinal fortitude of key ministers who only recently insisted on a national referendum.
Unfortunately, as the nervous ministers scurry back into their "bunny holes" it appears that Mr. Sharon may be correct in his assessment that there is no key Likud player willing to put his or her concern for the nation ahead of their own careers.
Sharon trounced Netanyahu in the November 2002 Likud primaries even though Likudniks rejected Sharon's support for a Palestinian state because Netanyahu was seen as a spineless prime minister.
Next week, when his ultimatum expires, we will see if Netanyahu's back condition has improved.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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