Dr. Aaron Lerner is co-founder of IMRA, Independent Media Review and Analysis, an Israel-based news organization which provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events relating to the Israeli-Arab conflict. imra@netvision.net.il
The Palestinian guns are cocked
By Dr. Aaron Lerner
November 18, 2004
Don't break out the champagne.
Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas (AKA Abu Mazen) didn't say yesterday that the various illegal militias should hand in their weapons -- he only said he didn't want to see them displayed in public.
And judging by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's most recent remarks, Israel's standards also appear to be rapidly plunging from demanding that the PA finally honor its security obligations and clear out the illegal weapons to settling for a return to the hudna -- AKA growing-cocked-gun.
Under the growing-cocked-gun the Palestinians can smuggle in whatever weapons, explosive and ammunition they wish to from Egypt via the smuggling tunnels. And it stands to logic that Hamas and other forces will be offered rewards for their temporary silence in the form of weapons that they can use
in the future. I would not be surprised if a cynical Egyptian intelligence officer hasn't already cut a deal with Hamas (with the concurrence of a similarly cynical CIA liaison) to supply them with considerably more powerful and effective weapons as a reward (and justification) for holding back their fire.
Under the growing-cocked-gun the Palestinians can complete the project to extend the range of the Qassam rockets to 20 kilometers and produce them in large quantities in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
Under the growing-cocked-gun the Palestinian militias can openly recruit, train and prepare for a post-hudna bloodbath.
And they can do all of this without fear of Israeli interference as long as they don't shoot. For the time being.
It is irresponsible for Israel to accept a growing-cocked gun-arrangement at any time, but with Prime Minister Sharon insisting that he will retreat from the Gaza Strip and northern Samaria come what may, providing for a growing-cocked-gun arrangement until the retreat is implemented is a program for anarchists -- not statesmen.
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