Dr. Aaron Lerner is co-founder of IMRA, Independent Media Review and Analysis, an Israel-based news organization which provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events relating to the Israeli-Arab conflict. imra@netvision.net.il
Entrusting Egyptians, Sharon giving up fight against Gaza arms smuggling
By Dr. Aaron Lerner
December 3, 2004
In the past few days Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plans have become disturbingly clear.
This Wednesday Sharon discussed the issue of weapons smuggling into Gaza from Egypt with Egyptian FM Ahmed Abul Gheit and said that "this must be dealt with thoroughly in order to complete the future exit from the Philadelphi corridor and in order to develop air and sea ports."
It should be noted that many times in the past the Government of Israel has gone on record praising Egypt for its dealing with the smuggling -- only to find that the Egyptian action was either temporary and/or seriously overstated.
The "dealt with thoroughly" stipulation is not time bound.
And with Sharon keen on leaving the border area altogether (he only dropped it from the plan under intense pressure from security officials) it can be expected that Egypt has to "thoroughly" deal with the smuggling for just enough time for Israel to complete a permanent withdrawal from the border and open the Gaza air and sea ports to international weapons traffic.
Once Israel retreats the parties can be expected to deny that the smuggling is taking place regardless of the truth. After all, for years both the Egyptians and the Palestinians denied the smuggling tunnels even existed.
Keep in mind that the "hudna" Egypt and others are proposing isn't a freeze on weapons smuggling -- just a temporary tactical halt to weapons shooting.
The result: A radical upgrade in the Palestinian firepower in the Gaza Strip for an ongoing war of attrition against the Jewish state to "end the occupation" and beyond.
A war of attrition in which the Palestinian side can always claim that the attacks are not sanctioned - and possibly even denounced in carefully drafted English press releases.
Mr. Sharon asserts that he is trading the Gaza Strip for the major settlement blocs in Judea and Samaria but those blocs are to be subject to a construction freeze beyond current building lines and, Benyamin Netanyahu's "red lines" notwithstanding, it appears that the blocs will not be formally included within the route of the separation fence for the foreseeable future.
A nascent terror state in the south with, at best, the settlement blocs in Judea and Samaria temporarily -- in Dov Weissglas' memorable phrase -- "in formaldehyde."
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