By Reuven Koret
December 19, 2004
In recent days, several U.S. Congressmen have written to President George Bush, asking him to explain the recent developments in the FBI investigation of AIPAC, the powerful pro-Israel lobbying organization.
Press reports have indicated that, contrary to initial reports that the investigation was the accidental offshoot of a probe into a Pentagon researcher, AIPAC was the primary target of a "sting" operation. The Pentagon man, Larry Franklin, was used to provide bogus information to AIPAC lobbyists to find out whether that information -- whether it was described as classified is unclear -- would wind up in Israel.
The FBI does not operate in a vacuum, and the question arises as to which purpose the investigation serves, and whose? Already, lobbyists for Jewish organizations in the United States report the "chilling effect" of such a probe, comparable to the aftermath of the arrest and subsequent conviction of Jonathan Pollard, the naval officer who passed classified information to Israel. They are circumspect about contacts with Israeli officials for fear of being suspect or even subpoenaed, as occurred with the senior AIPAC officers.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has put all of his diplomatic eggs into the basket prepared by George W. Bush. Based on Sharon's interpretation of assurances that Bush would back his plan for "unilateral disengagement" from Gaza and Northern Samaria, oppose the Palestinian "right of return" and recognize that major settlement blocs would be eventually annexed by Israel, Sharon sought to win the backing of his coalition partners and the Israeli public. He lost all those partners, but his popular standing remains relatively strong. There is popular support, as always in Israel, for a national unity government, with the ruling Likud party forming a coalition with Labor and at least one small religious party.
Sharon's disengagement plan was based on several concrete assurances which he made to ensure passage of the initial bill inside his government. One was that Israel would retain full control of the Philadelphi route separating Gaza from the Israeli-Egyptian international border. Another was that Israel would retain full control of the Gaza coast and airport, preventing the smuggling which has recently become a huge problem, resulting in rocket attacks on Israeli towns and Jewish settlements in Gush Katif and tunnels used to blow up IDF bases. He also said that there would be a separate vote on actual "evacuation" (i.e. expulsion) of residents of each of four groups of settlements.
Now, it would appear, Sharon is being forced to retreat from all these positions. Shimon Peres, head of the Labor party, his new coalition partner, has called for Israel to turn over control of ports to the Palestinians, enabling air and sea access for improved weapons, and for Israel to withdraw from the Philadelphi route, relying on the Egyptian to police the border and prevent tunnels (although who needs tunnels when you can ship it in or fly it in?).
Moreover, in a surprise move in response to "legal experts," Sharon is now saying that he must move up the evacuation vote from June to January and to have the vote to expel the Jewish residents from all communities in Gaza and northern Samaria in a single vote, not four, leaving plenty of time to crush, with a sympathetic Supreme Court and Attorney General, expected appeals on the legality of the "transfer" process.
Sharon clearly is no longer in control of the process. He is already being dragged headlong beyond the "red lines" he set as conditions for the far-reaching process he initiated. No wonder the leader of the Labor party's negotiating team said he was "groveling" for their entry into the government.
In the days and weeks to come, we can expect to see increasing pressure from the Americans and the Europeans for Sharon to make increasing concessions. The silk glove treatment he has enjoyed till now is likely to yield to brass knuckles from the Americans, British and other Europeans should the Israeli Prime Minister stray from the Quartet-dictated roadmap, perhaps strengthened by a "peace conference" in London or elsewhere.
Already, the Americans and the Europeans, not learning from their mistakes with Arafat, are ready to pledge huge sums of money -- reportedly $6 to $8 billion -- to aid the Palestinians, including increasing their "security." Much of that money will be poured into Gaza which promises to be an untouchable terror state within striking distance of Tel Aviv. As for the huge costs which will accompany Israel's redeployments, destruction of settlements, and relocation of settlers -- this apparently will be left for Israel alone to bear.
The Europeans now have their man a heart-beat -- or an indictment -- away from the leadership of Israel. If, heaven forbid, Ariel Sharon were to die in office, or perhaps to resign or suspend himself in the wake of various investigations still open against him, Shimon Peres will shortly be in a position to take over, and call the shots, at least during a hundred day transition period as provided by the Basic Law of the Knesset. As Sharon has showed, that can include firing uncooperative ministers, promoting cronies, and ignoring inconvenient laws or uncomfortable precedents. A lot can be achieved, and dismantled, in one hundred days.
In short, the stage is set for Ariel Sharon either being made expendable, and replaceable, or at least being played as an increasingly constrained and uncomfortable puppet. The cascade of concessions he is now making relative to his initial unilateral disengagement reflects this, but represents a small down-payment on the massive concessions to be extracted later. In short, an outmaneuvered Sharon has placed Israel on the fast-track to an imposed solution which promises to look far different than his original vision of a Palestinian state "in formaldehyde." Indeed, it is the Prime Minister who is being pickled.
The Late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin apparently had a similar queasiness in late October 1995, when he drew back from the "unofficial" Beilin-Abu Mazen agreement, godfathered by Peres, and put forth his own moderate, security-conscious alternative (which included the need to retain the Gush Katif bloc in Gaza--see my Rabin was Right"). A few weeks later he was assassinated, and Peres took over.
There is a point in the not distant future when, I believe, the FBI investigation of AIPAC and the ungloved squeeze on Israel will coincide with concerted international economic and political pressure on the Jewish State and Jews worldwide to toe the line -- or else. At the same time massive pressure is being applied on Israel, indictments will be served against Jewish lobbyists, along with lavish helpings of alleged dual loyalties.
The "sting" is set. It may come with the "honey" of action against Iran's nuclear capacity, or the Iranian nuclear threat may be allowed to hang over our head as a friendly reminder of what friends are for. The stab in the back will come with soothing words, and stroking reassurances that it really is for the best.
Our choice then will be to stand up and fight the world alone, or lie back and enjoy the world's tender mercies.
Pickle, anyone?
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