Dr. Aaron Lerner is co-founder of IMRA, Independent Media Review and Analysis, an Israel-based news organization which provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events relating to the Israeli-Arab conflict. imra@netvision.net.il
Post-retreat vision?
By Dr. Aaron Lerner
March 4, 2005
The Palestinian Authority proudly proclaimed a victory over Israel at the London Conference.
They're right.
PA leader Mahmoud Abbas made no bones in the days leading up to the Conference that, at best, he intends to deputize rather than destroy the terror infrastructure.
And no one in London really seemed to care -- or even notice.
Are the Europeans -- and even the Americans -- really to blame?
After all, there is no clear indication that this critically deleterious Palestinian policy is ultimately having any serious impact on Israeli policy.
Every time Prime Minister Ariel Sharon tells visiting diplomats that Israel will not compromise on the security of its citizens but in the very same breath proclaims that Israel will retreat from the Gaza Strip and northern Samaria come-what-may he sends the message that Palestinian noncompliance ultimately has no significance.
After all, if Mr. Sharon is willing to retreat regardless of who or what fills the vacuum - while asserting that he won't compromise on security - doesn't that pretty much disengage Israel's security from Palestinian compliance?
Sharon's team thinks that Israel will be able to capitalize on an improved post-withdrawal standing in the world to play catch up after the withdrawal but the opposite is the case.
Israeli security actions won't be met with understanding after the retreat but instead as chutzpah. "We didn't tell you to unilaterally withdraw," foreigners will explain, "but once you did you forfeited your right to complain."
Short of doing the truly sensible thing and aborting the disengagement plan altogether what can Israel do?
A good start would be to clearly enunciate a vision of Israel's post retreat policies - not the kind of hyperbole in the exchange of letters with Washington but real concrete policy - and then seek its acceptance by the key foreign players thus retaining the "unilateral" nature of the retreat vis-à-vis the Palestinians while recognizing that the "morning after" cannot be ignored.
And if Israel's vision is rejected?
It's profoundly better to know you don't have a parachute before jumping from the plane.
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