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By Micah D. Halpern
March 8, 2005
Anyone who thinks that Syria is packing up troops and returning home needs to relearn some basic truths of the Middle East and the relationship between Syria and Lebanon. Syria does not even have an embassy in Lebanon.
Syria is pulling back or redeploying --- Syria is not getting out of Lebanon!
Actually, according to Israeli intelligence reports, Syria removed soldiers from Beirut, but installed an entire new layer of intelligence gathering. Soldiers out, intelligence gathering in. They bolstered their spy network. What Syria could not accomplish with soldiers they will accomplish with technology and spies.
So, what's really happening?
In order to understand the Syrian-Lebanese relationship, we must understand the Hizbullah terrorist organization. Hizbullah is sponsored by Syria and by Iran. They are an extremely dangerous and they are a well organized terrorist network. They call themselves the "Party of God." Their main objective is to attack Israel, to attack the United States, to attack Western forces. They were responsible for the 1983 Beirut bombings that killed 320 Americans. They contain their activity to Lebanon or to just south of their border, in Israel.
When Syria is hurting Hizbullah is hurting. That is not just an economic equation but an existential equation. Syria gives Hizbullah cover and Syria gives Hizbullah power. It gives them intel and insight. It is their international eyes and ears.
If the Syrians withdraw to strongholds in the Bekka valley, the place incidentally where Syrian hashish fields are cultivated, Hizbullah's back is exposed.
In order to understand the Syrian-Lebanese relationship, we must also understand the life and mindset of the average Lebanese citizen.
The average Lebanese citizen feels for and understands the issues at stake and may actually even support attacks against Israel and the West. But only in theory. Not when it impacts on their livelihood.
The Lebanese are realistic. They know Israel is there to stay, if not forever, at least for the near future. They see that Israel is economically successful. That knowledge, that vision, that understanding is what makes Lebanon unlike every other Arab country in the region.
A Lebanon independent of Syria and responsible only to itself and its citizens would be an enormous step forward in stabilizing the Middle East. A Lebanon independent of Syria would be a gargantuan move forward in the fight on terror in the region.
But can it happen?
The best case, but improbable, scenario would have Lebanese local opinion forcing Hizbullah to conform to the changes and join mainstream Lebanon. Given Hizbullah leadership, there is small chance of that happening.
There is, however, another way. Hizbullah is its own state within a state. It has its own region, taxes, schools, charities, hospitals and army. I say, USE THAT. Cut them off. Isolate them. And then, let Israel attack Hizbullah at will. It is the only threat that has even a possibility of squashing Hizbullah and, as an added benefit, lending support to the rest of Lebanon.
I do not know that it will work. I do know that it is a possibility that never existed until this very moment.
Remember, as Lebanon's citizens remember, they have already lived through and been torn asunder by civil war. If Lebanon fails to control or remove Hizbullah now, Lebanon may slip into a far worse situation. To isolate Hizbullah, they must show them to be a group that is not at all interested in the overall good of Lebanon. And they must do it now. Now. Now is when they have the opportunity like never before. Now is when we, the West, need to trust the Lebanese to handle this situation.
By forcing the issue on Hizbullah, the Lebanese would be taking a stand. It would be a pro-Lebanese stand, and that is very important. It would not be a pro-Western stand, not a pro-Israel, not a pro-anything else stand. A local,
pro-Lebanese stand.
Certainly, we would need to expect Syrian support of Hizbullah. And, certainly, we would be privy to anti-Western, anti-US, anti-anything-modern rhetoric and even action. Local tensions and even internal terror are to be expected. But the Lebanese might just be able to pull it off. And it would be worth the price.
This is one of the most important opportunities the West has seen in decades. Let's not mess it up. Local pressure might work. Western pressure will certainly fail.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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