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Dr. Aaron Lerner is co-founder of , Independent Media Review and Analysis, an Israel-based news organization which provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events relating to the Israeli-Arab conflict.
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By Dr. Aaron Lerner
March 12, 2005
Israel's disputes with the PA over arrangements around Jericho aren't technical -- they are fundamental. And the way this is resolved in the coming days could very well doom the relationship between Israel and the post-Arafat PA to an even more destructive one than the Israel-Arafat disaster.
All the actors are in place:
Israel wants to continue with manned checkpoints on key roads on the outer perimeter and full control over the vital Route 90 highway that links northern Israel to the south to at least partially limit the security ramifications of turning Jericho into the first of a series of what may very well become not only terrorist cities of refuge but also training and arming centers.
The Palestinians want all Israeli security measures dropped while they make no bones about their plans to limit their own security activity, at best, to attempting to convince the various armed groupings temporarily not to pull their triggers. They aren't going to fight anyone -- and disarming anyone or closing down weapons production isn't even on their agenda.
Even that security activity is conditional. As WAFA, the PLO News Agency, reports, "[A]ddressing the 10th session of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) in Ramallah, on Tuesday, [Chairman] Abbas confirmed that the Palestinian efforts in security will remain "motionless" without implementing the Road Map obligations and launching the final status negotiations according to the international resolutions, the Arab Peace initiative and the US President's vision to end Israeli occupation and establish the Palestinian independent state with Jerusalem as its capital as well as solving the Refugee issue according to the international resolutions."
Put another way: if the talks don't start quickly - and in a format and with results to their liking -- all bets are off.
U.S. Army Lieutenant General William Ward, the recently appointed senior U.S. security coordinator, is expected to get involved now to break the impasse. And while the Bush administration's rhetoric certainly opposes Israeli roadblocks and restriction per se, President Bush and Secretary of State Rice have at times tempered their remarks by indicating that Israel's ability to lift security measures may be limited by the realities on the ground.
It certainly isn't an easy situation. And it certainly must be tempting for Ward to pursue the easy solution and try to force Israel to once again sacrifice its own security to keep the White House happy. And, given Prime Minister Sharon's recent track record, one could expect that a sharp phone call from Washington would suffice to make it clear that Ward is giving Israel marching orders -- not simply recommendations.
If Israel does fold on security arrangements in Jericho it will capitulate everywhere else as well. And in the absence of a significant terror attack in the next fortnight we could very well find ourselves with almost all -- if not all -- the Palestinians cities in the West Bank stripped of even the semblance of some kind of arrangements to prevent the development and interaction of terrorist cities of refuge.
Cities of refuge all working together in preparation for an Intifada III that would eclipse the last round in its ferocity thanks to the upgraded weapons and training developed during the "hudna".
On the other hand, if instead of bullying Israel into premature security concessions America backs a more conservative approach, it might help to bring down what should rightly be overblown Palestinian expectations of a security hiatus.
And what if Lieutenant General William Ward orders Israel to forfeit its security but Sharon doesn't salute?
Certainly not the best situation but hardly a disaster.
In fact, it might turn out to be a healthy exercise in re-establishing the principle that when you are pressured to do the wrong thing the proper response is a friendly yet firm "no" backed by an information and lobbying campaign so that your friends can understand and support your decision.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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