By Alexander Maistrovoy
April 16, 2005
Twenty years ago Arabs in general and Palestinians in particular were quite sure of their victory. For their success they didn't need military superiority or even sophisticated "salami" tactics, which Yaser Arafat had conducted for more than ten years. They considered the only thing they needed -- to outnumber Jews. Demographic advantage was expected to make Jews marginal in their own country.
Two factors undermined their confidence and induced them to begin negotiations with Israel. First was the wave of immigration from the former Soviet Union. Second factor was surprisingly dynamic development of settlements in Judea and Samaria. "Big aliya" has changed the correlation of forces and blown up Palestinian's belief in their main weapon -- the "womb." Rapid growth of the settlements in Judea and Samaria [the "West Bank"] caused the Arabs to lose control.
They were panic-stricken, and panic, in its turn, made them look for legal ways to neutralize the threat. The Palestinians started pseudo-negotiations with Israel and agreed to the fake Oslo treaty in order to keep back Jewish "creeping offensive" to theirs enclaves. They believed they would be able to preserve real demographic control of Judea and Samaria and then, in more favorable situation, would shift to direct attack against "Zionist formation". Settlements, as well as "aliya", have undermined Arabs' conviction that time works for their benefit.
But it would be wrong to reduce the settlement activity on peace process only to tactic means. The settlements are not only the factor inducing the Arabs to strive for negotiations with Israel. They are the indicator of whether peace is possible in the Middle East.
The core of the problem in the Middle East isn't settlement activity, boundaries, refugees, Jerusalem, or terror but that most Arabs -- not only in Saudi Arabia and HAMAS, but Egypt and FATH too - refuse to recognize the legitimacy of a Jewish State in the area they call Palestine. They refuse to recognize the legality of the Jewish presence here, if it is not more than a group of inoffensive ultra-orthodox Jews, absolutely dependent on the will of a Muslim majority. They refuse to see in Israel the fulfillment of the prophecies, inscribed in sacred books of all monotheistic religions, including Koran. They don't want to connect the Jewish homecoming to the Promised Land to biblical vows of God, and prefer not to see any link between the Jewish State and the Kingdoms of David and Solomon. And what is more, they deprive Jews of their history and connection with Palestine altogether, declaring that Jerusalem Temples are "fiction", and calling Jews descendants of Kyzars, African Berbers, etc. Israel is thus transformed into a ?colonial project" and a "malignant tumor in Arabic world."
Islam is unwilling make long lasting peace with such an "artificial" formation. Only a temporary settlement -- a "hudna" -- is to be considered.
Real peace will be established only when Arabs acknowledge: Jews lived in this land three thousand years ago, prayed, waged wars with their enemies and listened to their prophets. They should acknowledge that roots of Jewish people are in Judea, Jerusalem and Samaria. There are Jewish sacred places and sepulchers in these lands, here the most important events of Jewish history occurred and the Jewish worldview was molded here too. Jews have full rights to live here altogether with Arabs, like equal and free people, and it doesn't depend on whom this land belongs politically.
Even if political control in a particular area is turned over to Arabs, Jews should be able to live here like Arab-Muslims and Arab-Christians live in Jerusalem or Nazareth -- under Jewish rule, but near their sacred places, on the land, which they believe to be their own holy land. The moment the Palestinian rulers and spiritual leaders are ready to recognize political and religious legality of Jewish settlements in their state will mean that conflict is exhausted on a basic level. If Arabs recognize the right of Jews to live in Judea and Samaria, they?ll recognize the legitimacy of a Jewish state and it will open way to real peace. So their attitude to settlements is a litmus test of real attitude of Arabs to Jews and to the peace.
And vice versa, if Palestinians do not recognize the right of Jews to settle in Beit-El, Hebron, Gush-Ezion, Elkana or Alon-Moreh it will mean that they refuse to recognize any right for Jews in Promised Land generally. And they agree to compromises in order to weaken their enemy and gain time -- as Prophet Mohammed did to Kureish tribe, as Palestinians did once, signing Oslo Treaty.
And all the more so: if Israel begins to destroy the settlements on a massive scale in Judea and Samaria, Palestinians will consider it not only their victory, but their supreme license to continue in their campaign to destroy the Jewish State.
It will mean that the "Zionists" are not only stepping back but that they themselves don't believe in their destination, their right to live in this land and have their own state. And then, for Arabs at least but for many others as well, the fall of Israel will be only a question of time.
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