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Dr. Aaron Lerner is co-founder of , Independent Media Review and Analysis, an Israel-based news organization which provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events relating to the Israeli-Arab conflict.
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By Dr. Aaron Lerner
May 8, 2005
When, contrary to tradition, the terms of IDF Chief of Staff Ya'alon and Intelligence Chief Dichter were not extended because they raised concerns about the disengagement plan, many observers warned this could have a chilling effect on independent thinking in the security services.
After hearing Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aharon Ze'evi Farkash's remarks on Israel Radio last week, it appears that these concerns were well founded.
Farkash explained that military intelligence is now preparing projections of post-disengagement scenarios based on the assumption, among other things, that the Egyptians are playing a positive role in stabilizing the situation.
Why assume Egypt is playing a positive role?
The argument goes that Egypt should be playing a positive role since it should not serve its interests for Gaza to be either unstable or controlled by radical Palestinian elements.
Nice argument -- but to date Egypt has played anything but a positive role.
Egypt has focused its efforts with the Palestinians on preserving the various Palestinian militias -- including Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
Egypt continues to refuse to make any serious effort to restrict the flow of weapons from Egypt to the Gaza Strip and West Bank.
And what about Egypt's activity on the ground in Gaza? This week Egypt went so far as to instruct the Palestinian Authority to release a Hamas militiaman they captured with a rocket.
A generation ago Israel paid a terrible toll in blood when intelligence about Egypt was forced to fit preconceived notions and the Jewish State faced war unprepared.
Today, as the Sharon team is busy preparing the groundwork for a self imposed disaster, Israel can ill afford artificially induced optimism.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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