By Ted Belman
September 29, 2005
Aluf Benn, writing in Haaretz,under the title PM: Despite rumors, no plan for W. Bank pullout reports on Israel's intentions after Gaza.
It seems that the Quartet was in a flap after Eyal Arad, one of Sharon's advisors, said that "If we see, over time, that the impasse continues, then, even though Israel's diplomatic situation is comfortable, we might consider turning the disengagement into an Israeli strategy. Israel would determine its borders independently."
To calm the winds, Sharon's office said: "The prime minister's position was and remains that following completion of the disengagement, Israel will work to advance the diplomatic process solely via the road map," and that "Any additional territorial changes will be discussed and decided upon only in the framework of negotiations on a permanent agreement. Until we reach this stage, if we reach it, there will not be any further unilateral territorial moves."
Sharon is in fact saying that there will be no further withdrawals other than pursuant to negotiations on a permanant agreement which may never take place. Until such time, Israel will retain control of Judea and Samaria.
Is Sharon really disagreeing with Arad?
When Sharon was acting on his disengagement plan the Quartet demanded to know that the plan would not replace the Roadmap and Sharon was quick to agree. So too, here. I fail to understand what is so sacrosanct about the roadmap but the Quartet and Israel are hugging it like the bible. The Palestinians have a different bible.
The roadmap is divided into three stages and the first most important stage requires parallel steps. The Palestinians so far have been unable to take even baby steps. Sharon worries that the Quartet will fudge on the Palestinian obligation and will attempt to water it down. So for Sharon, the Roadmap protects Israel because final status negotions come only after incitement ends and the terror apparatus destroyed. Also by using the word "solely" he is relying on assurances that were given to him by Bush that there would be no other plan put forward.
What is abundantly clear is that the Palestinians will never take the steps required of them. I say this not only because it seems apparant on the ground but because terrorism and incitement are indespendible to the Arab efforts to destroy Israel. Furthermore Abbas has rejected the idea of a provisional state as anticipated in the second stage and wants to bypass both the first and second stage and go right to final status negotiations. Sharon will never agree to this.
What did Sharon mean by denying further "territorial changes"? For sure it means that Israel will retain control of the Judea and Samaria. But the fence will proceed and small settlements will be abandoned. Sharon does not consider that these are "territorial changes".
Arad is saying nothing different. Israel will determine its "borders" independently by building the fence and removing some small settlements on the east side of it. The "borders" so created are demographic borders but not political borders. Israel will retain control of all of the West Bank.
In effect Israel gets the best of both worlds. It gets the benefits of sovereignty over the West Bank and Jerusalem without the need to give citizenship to the Palestinians living there. It also gets the time (decades) to consolidate its hold on Jerusalem and Maaleh Adumin.
Benn reports: "Sharon's associates said that there would be no diplomatic or political logic to launching a new initiative involving territorial withdrawals now. The whole purpose of the disengagement, they said, was to perpetuate the status quo in the West Bank until the Palestinians change."
The last sentence is the key. "Perpetuating the status quo" does not mean freezing the situation. It means retaining control and using that control to continue unilaterally putting facts on the ground.
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