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Dr. Aaron Lerner is co-founder of , Independent Media Review and Analysis, an Israel-based news organization which provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events relating to the Israeli-Arab conflict.
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By Dr. Aaron Lerner
November 25, 2005
If all goes well and the survival instincts of the post-Sharon Likud bring them to the realization that their only possible chance to beat Sharon is by "product differentiation" then the Israeli electorate may very well have a genuine opportunity to set the Jewish State's path at the ballot box.
Labor, Sharon and Likud can offer the public distinctly different paths, each with its own distinct logic.
The Labor Party, headed by Amir Peretz, is genuinely convinced that withdrawal to the '67 lines will bring peace. Period. The heavy investment they plan to make in quick final status talks is not because they think such paperwork is really needed for peace but instead in order to come up with wording that will satisfy enough Israelis who don't share their faith to join in supporting the final status withdrawals . And since, according to this faith, Arab violence will end the moment the last Israeli leaves the West Bank (and possibly the Golan), Palestinian security noncompliance before the actual withdrawal is irrelevant.
The Sharon "Kadima" Party, or rather Ariel Sharon (the rest of the ticket is profoundly irrelevant) is genuinely convinced that Israel can unilaterally impose final status arrangements if it unilaterally withdraws to ostensibly final status borders. The United States and even the European Union will give Sharon carte blanche, the argument goes, as long as he bulldozes enough Jewish communities in the West Bank.
The Likud is genuinely convinced that Israel is better off managing the stalemate that insisting on Palestinian compliance before final status talks can be expected to entail. By the same token, should conditions warrant Israel's engagement in final status talks Israel will enter those talks confident that the Jewish State's interests would be better served if the
talks stalemate over final status terms rather than compromise on what it sees as vital Israeli interests and requirements. National Union and NRP also fit into this line of thought but with a more demanding perception of what are vital Israeli interests and requirements.
In many respects, the Labor-Peretz approach, being faith-based, has both the advantage and disadvantage of simplicity. Accept the premise that withdrawal to the '67 lines will bring peace as axiomatic and the rest falls into place. Reject that article of faith and the logic falls apart.
The debate between the Sharon and Likud approaches is considerably more complicated as it requires not only deliberating Israel's vital interests but also assessing the limits Israel faces as it endeavors to pursue these interests under the two scenarios.
Both camps can be expected to try to bolster their position by referring to the Gaza experience: Supporters of the Sharon approach can point to the praise Israel earned for withdrawing while advocates of the Likud approach can point out that the Gaza model was based on 100% withdrawal and that that foreign praise did not translate into support for Israel's stand on security interests.
The security fiasco known as "Agreement on Movement and Access" and "Agreed Principles For Rafah Crossing" that Israel was pressured by the Bush team to accept to fill the vacuum created by the retreat from Gaza serves as a stark reminder of just how fleeting the rewards are for retreating.
On the other hand, with elections coming up in just a few months, retreat advocates can hope that the security consequences of the Gaza retreat won't play out before the votes are cast.
It is hard to predict how the vote will ultimately be split among the three views. But at least this election may offer the opportunity for the public to consider and choose from diverse alternatives.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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