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By Bruce S. Ticker
December 23, 2005
A Palestinian state will not work.
Any peace settlement must result from negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians. No pact will ever be reached by wishing for it or issuing demands in the media.
That said, my personal opinion for a potential solution has been a work in progress during the last five years and came together between the day Israeli troops exited Gaza in mid-September until United States and European officials pressured Israel earlier in December to renew talks to arrange bus convoys that would travel from Gaza to the West Bank on Israeli soil. Israel resisted this pressure.
Since the convoy deal, Palestinians have fired missiles into an industrial strip and an army base soth of the Israeli city of Ashkelon last week from the ruins of a Gaza settlement. Weren't Palestinian security forces supposed to be in control of the abandoned settlements?
The Palestinians have for long escaped serious criticism because Israel, too, made serious mistakes. The Palestinians dug a moralistic hole for themselves once the Israeli government recognized that some settlements were not worth keeping. Once Israel abandoned the settlements in Gaza, there was precious little room for criticism of Israel. The Palestinians found themselves in a position where they had to put up or shut up.
A Palestinian state might merit support under these non-negotiable conditions -- that Israeli citizens can live without fear of terrorism and that daily life in Israel is not disrupted. But not when that life is regular shattered by missile and rocket fire, and occasional suicide bombings.
The result has been chaos and terror. Israel's reward for leaving has been murderous attacks on its citizens. The authority either will not or cannot control the factions competing for power both in Gaza and the West Bank. Why should Israel bother doing business with them?
If the authority cannot govern Gaza, how will it coordinate the governance of two separate slices of real estate separated by 30 miles of Israeli land? Some advocates of this arrangement argue that mainland United States is separated from Alaska by Canada. As former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak said in a speech in Philadelphia last January, he wished that Israel had a neighbor like Canada.
One plan is for the construction of possibly both a highway and a train which cuts through southern Israel so that goods and people can travel from Gaza to the West Bank. The first obstacle is fear among Israelis that terrorists and arms will be smuggled into the West Bank, where Israel is more vulnerable to attacks from its borders.
Secondly, the road and the train will probably cost billions of dollars that could be better spent on programs to build the economies of both Gaza and the West Bank and, for that matter, the neighboring Arab nations. Besides, why should the U.S. contribute to these projects when its biggest city cannot afford to keep its subways running without disruption?
In the case of Jerusalem, why do the Palestinians need it? They can make any religious claim they want, but Israel seized east Jerusalem in a war which the Arabs started. Israel is under no obligation to return an inch.
On paper, the only arrangement which makes sense is for the West Bank to be joined with Jordan and Gaza to become part of Egypt.
They all share the primary traditions, customs and religious beliefs in that part of the world. Moving about would be convenient. Both Egypt and Jordan are already sovereign nations that made peace with Israel and should be able to absorb the Palestinians.
Both nations have seaports and airports to allow for travel and transport of goods. Those who wish to travel from Gaza to the West Bank can fly from Cairo to Amman. The international community can pay for their trips, and perhaps Egypt can build an airport closer to Gaza.
Jordan would govern portions of the West Bank under an agreement with Israel. The residents of Gaza and the West Bank could maintain limited self-government by forming a province in conjunction with their respective new nation. That is, Gaza could be a province of Egypt and the West Bank a province of Jordan.
If this arrangement goes into effect, the Palestinians will be part of nations of like-minded people and Israelis will no longer need to worry about internal terror threats.
In reality, it likely will not work. Arab clans and militant factions have been fighting among themselves for land and power. How will that change if Jordan and Egypt enter the picture?
Would Egypt or Jordan even want these territories? Doubtful. Both are poor and autocratic and Egypt is particularly corrupt. The Palestinians attempted to overthrow Jordan's late King Hussein 35 years ago. Both countries will spend too much time putting down revolts to do anything else.
Any territorial arrangement should result from negotiations, and there may be no ideal solution. But the devil Israelis know in the present imperfect may be preferable to the one they may meet in a risky future deal involving irrevocable concessions on sovereignty.
Unless there is a marked reversal in behavior by the Palestinians, Israel would be foolish to give them a state.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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