Dr. Aaron Lerner is co-founder of IMRA, Independent Media Review and Analysis, an Israel-based news organization which provides an extensive digest of media, polls and significant interviews and events relating to the Israeli-Arab conflict. imra@netvision.net.il
Breaking bones for victory
By Dr. Aaron Lerner
February 3, 2006
There is no denying the logic behind the advice that acting prime minister Ehud Olmert's campaign advisors no doubt gave him to mark the formal opening of the Kadima Party's election campaign by breaking the bones of protesters at Amona.
After all, overnight polling certainly would have shown that many potential Kadima voters were disappointed with the outcome in the Hebron market affair -- with the Jews evacuating on their own volition as part of an understanding (confirmed by the IDF and denied by AG Mazuz) that other Jews can be expected to replace them in the buildings in a month or two.
Heavily covered bone breaking no-nonsense "law enforcement" at Amona more than makes up for Hebron. Accepting the Yesha Council's proposal that they themselves would either re-locate or demolish the buildings within two weeks would have meant much more than a lost photo-op: it could have meant a drop of several percentage points in the polls for Kadima.
And to make matters worse for the Kadima campaign team, accepting the Yesha Council's proposal would have given the Yesha Council more credibility in the eyes of the protesters - thus increasing the possibility that they would be also able to successfully broker other evacuations - thus denying the Kadima campaign team the bone breaking law enforcement imagery they sought not only at Amona but at the other locations slated for action before the
elections.
The numbers definitely favored confrontation over peaceful resolution.
But with Kadima enjoying a huge lead in the polls was it really necessary for Mr. Olmert to put his campaign's interests ahead of those of the nation?
Is it really so critical that Kadima polls 43 seats instead of 39?
Perhaps Mr. Olmert's campaign advisors can't be faulted for wanting to maximize Kadima's victory at the polls at any cost, but that doesn't excuse Ehud Olmert for accepting their advice.
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