By Dr. Aaron Lerner
March 17, 2006
In less than two weeks Israel's citizens go to the polls to vote in what has clearly become a retreat referendum.
Yes, Acting PM Ehud Olmert only said explicitly that he intended to tear down the Jewish communities located beyond an as yet to be finalized security fence -- and two of the Kamida party's senior security personalities, Avi Dichter and MK Gideon Ezra, have asserted that the IDF will not retreat from the rubble, but Olmert has carefully maintained his option to embrace DM Mofaz's position that once the homes are bulldozed that the IDF should high-tail it back behind the fence.
And since the retreat is just that -- a retreat, this "package" does not include any clear picture regarding what will transpire in the evacuated areas beyond the tradition secular messianic view that the IDF will be eternally able to prevail, at an acceptable cost, regardless of the opening conditions on the ground.
And those opening conditions in a post retreat conflict may be nothing like the IDF-Palestinian clashes we have seen to date, thanks both to Hamas' rise to power and Israel's forfeiture of control over transit between the areas and the outside world (as has already happened in the Gaza Strip).
Until now, PA armed forces have suffered from internal corruption and a lack of unity that limited their ability to launch an effective war of attrition against the Jewish State. The Hamas-led Palestinian army will be considerably more potent. And after an Israeli retreat, they will be able to not only readily arm themselves with considerably more deadly weapons but also introduce foreign elements both to bolster their forces and to serve as human shields.
Today when an IDF team goes into Jericho or Jenin, they face light arms fire, grenades, and some low-grade anti-tank devices and the third party casualties are Palestinians. The Palestinian response is limited to threatening terror attacks that they are trying to carry out anyway and firing Qassam rockets at Israelis in the boondocks.
After the retreat the situation will be completely different. A nightmare in the very center of the country. A war of attrition that saps the country and a fighting force that in time of invasion can provide both a bridgehead for the invaders and divert vital Israeli forces needed at the fronts.
I wanted to send a simple message to my fellow countrymen who oppose the retreat but out of disgust for the politicians do not plan to vote: These elections are not about Netanyahu, or Silvan "Steve" Shalom, or various other politicians in the other parties in the national camp. These elections are a national referendum on retreat.
Staying at home is a vote for retreat. I have no illusions. There is no guarantee that the politicians will ultimately even honor the outcome of the "referendum". But it is our only shot. And sometimes in life you make an effort because an issue is so important even if you can't be certain that the effort will pay off.
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