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Roberta Fahn Schoffman , representing IPF (www.israelpolicyforum.org) in Jerusalem, heads MindSet Media and Strategic Consulting.
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By Roberta Fahn Schoffman
April 4, 2006
Observers are quick to point out that the "revolution" did not happen in these 2006 Israeli elections. Kadima's performance turned out to be weak, Labor's revival not strong enough. Likud may be reduced to a fraction of its prior strength, but much of the right-wing energy was diverted to Avigdor Lieberman. The various religious and Arab parties did not stray far from their traditional numbers. No one, of course, predicted the Pensioners' amazing showing, but we've grown accustomed to such one-shot, out-of-nowhere parties - even ones whose MKs are not elderly -- that don?t last more than one term.
It would seem that Israelis are becoming apathetic and cynical. How else to explain why hordes of young Tel Avivis voted for Pensioners whose names they did not know? But it can also be argued that Israelis are growing "normal", increasingly resembling their western counterparts. Voters are turning out in smaller numbers, and are tired of heavy existential issues. They seek economic security, and, as the anticipated next prime minister framed it precisely, they want a "country that is fun to live in." And this, in spite of the unappealing coalition negotiations that are already dredging up old vendettas and bringing out the best in no one, is good news.
We can argue whether or not these elections were in fact a national referendum on future disengagements, as Netanyahu claimed early last month. But we cannot discount the clarity with which Ehud Olmert articulated his intentions for a "convergence plan" that would involve a substantial withdrawal from the West Bank and evacuation of settlements. There was no blurring of goals when he stated that his government would "set the final borders of the State of Israel." The cumulative support received by Kadima with 29 seats, and parties to its left, including Labor (19 seats), Meretz (5), and the Arabs (10), gives an unmistakable majority to those who reject Greater Israel and endorse a negotiated or unilateral return of territory. There could be no better testimony than the large newspaper ad that the Council of Jewish Communities in Judea, Samaria and Gaza felt compelled to publish this past weekend, pleading, "Olmert has no mandate for retreating in Judea and Samaria."
When the populist Amir Peretz burst onto the scene, he forced the country to pay attention to the plight of the Israeli poor, the disgraceful disregard of the elderly, the abusive treatment of foreign workers. The agenda shifted to socio-economic issues and all the other parties quickly lined up to present social welfare platforms. But, as too often happens in this part of the world, just as quickly the priorities turned again. The Hamas victory in the Palestinian elections brought new war cries from Bibi, and Lieberman and the National Unity Party waved their banners of fear. But the Israeli voter, sneaking in under the radar of the ubiquitous and intrusive pollsters, got the first message and returned it loud and clear: This government is expected to reverse the insensitive budgetary cuts introduced by Finance Minister Netanyahu that hurt the weakest elements of Israeli society while boosting the strongest.
The likely partners in a Kadima-led coalition will uphold the social agenda: The Pensioners have no other platform but to improve the well-being of their constituency. Shas, who gained political power through the spread of social-service networks, will demand budget increases for young families. And Labor, headed by the firebrand union leader, will insist on domestic social reform. If Amir Peretz gets the Finance Ministry that he so covets, or the powerful Defense Ministry, he will be in a strong position to influence the reordering of national priorities, the earmarking of money to welfare and education, and the diverting of funds away from settlement activity. He is, however, in a weaker position entering the coalition negotiations following his ill-considered attempt to snatch the national leadership away from Olmert by joining forces, in an unholy alliance, with Bibi and other extreme right-wingers. One strains to imagine what that socioeconomic agenda would have looked like.
The ascendance of Ehud Olmert represents the solidification of a move toward a civilian-run government. He does not come with medals on his chest or battalions of troops who followed his lead. Thrust into this role unexpectedly, he quietly and responsibly took control. His experience is vast, his commitment to public life great, his charisma lacking. But he is a new kind of leader for this country and may create the model by which future leaders will be judged.
Along with Olmert comes an array of new blocs and new faces, a redrawing of the political map. In a country that is in many ways tribal, where voting along traditional lines of sub-cultures and ethnicities was the longtime norm, a Smith/Globes poll showed that only 17% of the voters chose the same party they voted for in 2003. With Likud being shot down to 12 seats from 40 in the previous government, Shinui obliterated, and Lieberman rocketing upward with 11 seats -- not to mention the seven surprise Pensioners -- the 17th Knesset looks quite different from its predecessors. Forty MKs, a full one-third, will be new to the parliament. While there are fewer women (17 vs. 18 in the last Knesset), there are 18 MKs with PhD degrees, 15 immigrants, 15 senior IDF officers, 11 Israeli Arabs, and only 8 who live in settlements. Tired of the corruption and lack of accountability that has come to characterize Israel?s lawmakers, the Israeli people have sent a potent signal that they expect this new lineup to actually provide good governance.
Some people see the elections of 2006 as a mortal blow to Israeli democracy. There?s been much breast-beating over the lowest turnout in Israeli elections history (63.2%), over the undecided voters (25%) who did not make up their mind until the last three days of the race, over the "protest" votes that brought a motley band of unknown seniors into a position of prominent leverage. But there are a lot of us who will remember that the unexceptional Ehud Olmert, acting with great restraint and courage, took on this campaign with quiet resolve. He said what he intended to do. He broke from his own political tradition to offer a hopeful resolution to the endless conflict. And, speaking with unabashed honesty, said the simple truth of it all. At the end of the day, Olmert revealed, after 57 years of struggle and sacrifice, Israelis just wanna have fun.
Views expressed by the author do not
necessarily reflect those of israelinsider.
 
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